984 FXUS62 KMHX 220614 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 214 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low pressure to the west and southwest through midweek. Associated warm and moist southerly flow will produce above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1005 pm Saturday...Scattered convection approaching from the west. Kept slight chance in the northeast counties with chance elsewhere. No change to overnight lows. Prev disc...Differences exist later tonight amongst the HRRR, NSSL- WRF and 3km NAM with regards to precipitation development as the NSSL- WRF shows a band of convection moving through the region closer to midnight, while the HRRR and NAM12 show any activity holding off until early Sunday morning. Likely trigger will be a shortwave crossing Kentucky that has become convectively active over the past hour or so. Given the uncertainty in the precipitation timing, have lowered PoPs from likely to high chance from after 03z through the overnight hours. With a record-breaking precipitable water of 2.46 inches from this morning's 12Z MHX sounding, any convection has the potential to quickly produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Low temperatures tonight should be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 350 PM Saturday...After any initial precipitation in the morning, Sunday afternoon again looks convectively active with deep southerly flow around high pressure offshore with surface trough lingering inland over the Piedmont of North Carolina with mid-level low parked over the Southeastern United States. Following the trends from both the GFS/ECMWF, PoPs go from high chance during the morning to likely during the afternoon. With high precipitable water values, heavy downpours are possible and eastern NC is in a "Marginal" threat of excessive rainfall for Sunday. The deep moisture and widespread cloudiness should reduce the threat for any severe convection Sunday. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday...A warm and moist southerly flow will continue Sunday Night through next week due to low pressure to the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, leading to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week. Sunday Night through Wednesday...Deep, warm, and moist southerly flow will continue behind a departing low pressure system Sunday night and will persist through much of the upcoming week between broad low pressure aloft to the west and western Atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating with a persistent mid level trough over the eastern US. Timing for the highest chances of rain is roughly Monday afternoon through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over Eastern NC with an elongated axis of very high PWATs stretching from the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. Given persistence amongst guidance over the past several runs, have increased PoPs slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 6 inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast. Will continue to highlight severe/flood potential in HWO. Thursday and Friday...The persistent upper trough to our west finally fills and shifts northeast from the Deep South states towards the Mid-Atlantic, with high pressure continuing offshore. Moist southwesterly flow will be present both days with convection more diurnally focused. Temps Sunday Night through Friday will be close to climatological normals, ranging from highs in the upper 80s inland to mid 80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/... As of 200 AM Sunday...Current VFR all sites expected to prevail most of the night but a TEMPO period of IFR stratus just below 1K ft also likely for sites west of KEWN mainly 08Z-12Z. Mid- level dry slot currently keeping precip west and east of area will continue rest of night, then deepening southerly flow and moisture expected to produce scattered to broken coverage of convective activity afternoon into evening with brief periods of sub-VFR possible. Southerly winds will gust up to 20 KT this afternoon. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Periodic Sub-VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday as an unsettled pattern develops across Eastern NC. Southerly flow will continue Sunday night and will last through next week. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/... As of 1005 pm Saturday...Current marine zones still look good. No changes needed late this evening. Gusty southwest winds will continue overnight with rough seas persisting through the evening before subsiding somewhat after midnight. While conditions may subside for several hours late tonight and early Sunday, have extended the Small Craft Advisory from tonight through later this week, and wind and seas quickly increase again by late morning to midday on Sunday. With high pressure offshore and a surface trough over the Piedmont of North Carolina remaining in place for much of the next several days, gusty southerly winds and rough seas will continue. Did extend the SCA for the Pamlico Sound until 5 AM Sunday morning, but conditions there should subside below SCA status for at least a day or so. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Low end SCA conditions are expected over the waters for much of the period. Sunday Night through Wednesday, moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well west of the waters and high pressure across the western Atlantic Ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately Monday afternoon through Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC/HSA SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/JBM/HSA/MS MARINE...DAG/CTC/HSA