520 
FXUS62 KMHX 102330 AAA
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
730 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Chris will move northeast tonight and Wednesday 
while strengthening to a hurricane. A weak cold front will 
move into the region Wednesday night and stall just south
of the area into Thursday night. Weak high pressure will move 
in Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 7 pm Tuesday...Zones in fine shape. No changes needed. Rare
high and dry in mid- July will prevail tonight with subsidence 
from upper ridge extending over area from W-NW aided by 
strengthening TC Chris well offshore. Mostly clear skies and 
light winds will allow temps to drop to low-mid 60s inland and 
65-70 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...models have backed off on shower/tstm
threat with cold front and shortwave from NW until late in the
day. Adjusted POPs accordingly with just slight chance POPs for
NW sections after 5 PM. Hot temps will return with downsloping
winds and good insolation, with highs low to mid 90s inland and
near 90 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Mon...With Chris finally accelerating out of the
area on Wednesday, attention will turn to a weak cold front
which will move into northern portions of Eastern NC Wednesday
evening. The front will reach the southern coast Thursday,
before stalling just offshore through Friday. Weak high pressure
will move in this weekend, and then more unsettled weather is
possible early next week.

Wednesday night through Friday...Showers and storms associated 
with the front will slowly push south through the area, reaching
the southern NC coast by Thursday morning. The front is then 
expected to continue to push just offshore, before stalling out 
through Friday. This will lead to increased precip chances for 
both Thursday and Friday. Have high chance PoPs for this period,
focusing on the northern half of the CWA Wednesday, and then 
the southern half Thursday and Friday. Some organized 
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening and night, as shear
values will be around 20-25 kts, with MUCAPE values 1500-2500 
J/kg. Any storms that form will also be heavy rain-makers, as 
storm motions will be less than 20 kts, and PWATS approaching 
1.75". It will be much warmer than recently on Wednesday, with 
temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s inland, and the upper 
80s to low 90s near the coast. We cool off a bit Thursday and 
Friday behind the front, with highs only reaching the mid to 
upper 80s across the region. Low temps will be seasonable, 
ranging from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70 along the coast.

Saturday through Monday...A weak area of high pressure will move
over the NC coast Saturday, and act to limit any precip to only
a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Then, conditions 
turn more unsettled Sunday, and into early next week, as an 
upper level ridge builds across the lower Mississippi Valley, 
and multiple shortwaves rotate around it and into North 
Carolina. Temperatures will be around normal, with highs in the 
low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Low 
temps will be milder, ranging from the low to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday/... 
As of 7 pm Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the TAF period as dry high pressure is forecast
to remain over the area through tonight. There will be a small 
window for shallow fog with MVFR visibilities to develop again 
09-12Z tonight due to strong radiational cooling. VFR 
conditions otherwise continue Wednesday morning ahead of the 
approach of a cold front at the end of the period.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Tues...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible
Wednesday through Friday as a cold front slowly moves through 
the airspace and then stalls to the south of the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 730 pm Tuesday...Diamond Buoy just reported seas 4.6 
feet. Seas are averaging 3-4 feet across the remainder of the 
zones. Therefore, will go ahead and cancel all Small Craft 
Advisories. Updated zones out shortly. 

Prev disc...N winds 10-20 KT early will back to westerly 
overnight 10-15 KT and then to SW for southern and central 
waters Wed. Northern waters will see somewhat variable winds Wed
with front possibly pushing in from N-NW in afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Tues...A slow moving cold front is expected to 
push into the northern coastal waters by Wednesday evening, and 
turn winds to the NNW at 10-15 kts behind it. This will continue
as the front creeps south through all the coastal waters by 
late Thursday morning. However, the front may stall before 
reaching the southern coastal waters leaving winds SW 10-15 kts.
Winds become easterly 5-10 kts later Thursday afternoon, and 
then blow out of the ENE Friday and Saturday. Seas will be 4-6 
ft Wednesday morning, before quickly dissipating to 3-5 ft. 2-4 
ft seas are then likely Wednesday night through Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM Tuesday...Tropical Cyclone Chris is forecast to 
strengthen to a hurricane and move northeast over the Atlantic 
tonight and Wed. An enhanced rip current threat is expected to 
continue through mid-week, as well as rough surf for the 
beaches, mainly from Cape Lookout north.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...HSA/MS/SGK
MARINE...HSA/JBM/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX