520 FXUS62 KMHX 102330 AAA AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Chris will move northeast tonight and Wednesday while strengthening to a hurricane. A weak cold front will move into the region Wednesday night and stall just south of the area into Thursday night. Weak high pressure will move in Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 7 pm Tuesday...Zones in fine shape. No changes needed. Rare high and dry in mid- July will prevail tonight with subsidence from upper ridge extending over area from W-NW aided by strengthening TC Chris well offshore. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temps to drop to low-mid 60s inland and 65-70 coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM Tuesday...models have backed off on shower/tstm threat with cold front and shortwave from NW until late in the day. Adjusted POPs accordingly with just slight chance POPs for NW sections after 5 PM. Hot temps will return with downsloping winds and good insolation, with highs low to mid 90s inland and near 90 coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Mon...With Chris finally accelerating out of the area on Wednesday, attention will turn to a weak cold front which will move into northern portions of Eastern NC Wednesday evening. The front will reach the southern coast Thursday, before stalling just offshore through Friday. Weak high pressure will move in this weekend, and then more unsettled weather is possible early next week. Wednesday night through Friday...Showers and storms associated with the front will slowly push south through the area, reaching the southern NC coast by Thursday morning. The front is then expected to continue to push just offshore, before stalling out through Friday. This will lead to increased precip chances for both Thursday and Friday. Have high chance PoPs for this period, focusing on the northern half of the CWA Wednesday, and then the southern half Thursday and Friday. Some organized thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening and night, as shear values will be around 20-25 kts, with MUCAPE values 1500-2500 J/kg. Any storms that form will also be heavy rain-makers, as storm motions will be less than 20 kts, and PWATS approaching 1.75". It will be much warmer than recently on Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s near the coast. We cool off a bit Thursday and Friday behind the front, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 80s across the region. Low temps will be seasonable, ranging from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70 along the coast. Saturday through Monday...A weak area of high pressure will move over the NC coast Saturday, and act to limit any precip to only a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Then, conditions turn more unsettled Sunday, and into early next week, as an upper level ridge builds across the lower Mississippi Valley, and multiple shortwaves rotate around it and into North Carolina. Temperatures will be around normal, with highs in the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Low temps will be milder, ranging from the low to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday/... As of 7 pm Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the TAF period as dry high pressure is forecast to remain over the area through tonight. There will be a small window for shallow fog with MVFR visibilities to develop again 09-12Z tonight due to strong radiational cooling. VFR conditions otherwise continue Wednesday morning ahead of the approach of a cold front at the end of the period. Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 340 AM Tues...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday as a cold front slowly moves through the airspace and then stalls to the south of the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 730 pm Tuesday...Diamond Buoy just reported seas 4.6 feet. Seas are averaging 3-4 feet across the remainder of the zones. Therefore, will go ahead and cancel all Small Craft Advisories. Updated zones out shortly. Prev disc...N winds 10-20 KT early will back to westerly overnight 10-15 KT and then to SW for southern and central waters Wed. Northern waters will see somewhat variable winds Wed with front possibly pushing in from N-NW in afternoon. Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 340 AM Tues...A slow moving cold front is expected to push into the northern coastal waters by Wednesday evening, and turn winds to the NNW at 10-15 kts behind it. This will continue as the front creeps south through all the coastal waters by late Thursday morning. However, the front may stall before reaching the southern coastal waters leaving winds SW 10-15 kts. Winds become easterly 5-10 kts later Thursday afternoon, and then blow out of the ENE Friday and Saturday. Seas will be 4-6 ft Wednesday morning, before quickly dissipating to 3-5 ft. 2-4 ft seas are then likely Wednesday night through Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 PM Tuesday...Tropical Cyclone Chris is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and move northeast over the Atlantic tonight and Wed. An enhanced rip current threat is expected to continue through mid-week, as well as rough surf for the beaches, mainly from Cape Lookout north. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...HSA/MS/SGK MARINE...HSA/JBM/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX