421 
FXUS63 KMPX 010907
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
407 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over
the eastern Dakotas. Associated showers and isolated thunderstorms
will result in a soggy morning over most of the area, but a
notable decrease in activity will follow for the afternoon hours
as the aforementioned wave ejects to the Great Lakes. After precip
ends this afternoon, overall dry weather is expected into Monday.
The minor exception could be for locations in the far northwest
corner of the forecast area (near Alexandria), which could see a
few showers tonight attendant with a shortwave trough skirting the
International border. The duration would be short however, with
little additional precipitation anticipated. 

Temperatures will retreat below normal today, with highs in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

The pattern for the coming week looks to be characterized by 
fast upper flow just to our north and resultant chances of storms 
into Thursday, as well as slowly building heights while the eastern 
subtropical high gradually moves/expands westward.

After today's jet core and upper trough move past our area, the next 
wind max approaches late tonight with around 100 knots at 250 mb 
over northern Minnesota by Monday morning. As it translates eastward 
and strengthens, lower levels respond with return flow and abundant 
moisture streaming into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. 
Precipitable water values reach 1.5 inches Monday afternoon. 
Southerly winds at 850 mb look to reach about 35 knots. With morning 
and midday sunshine, temperature profiles with steep lapse rates may 
well set up tomorrow afternoon, especially in our western MN 
counties. Thus the outlook for possible severe weather later 
tomorrow looks reasonable.

Once that system departs Monday night, upper flow takes on a bit 
more of a wsw to ene pattern, with occasional short waves and 
jetlets just to our west and north. Although heights and 
temperatures aloft will be very slowly increasing, abundant moisture 
remains, with precipitable water values from 1.5 to 2.1 inches 
staying with us through Thursday morning. Thus the atmosphere should 
remain unstable for the early and middle part of the coming week, 
and with periodic weak short waves brushing past the area, 
thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon through Thursday. 
The storms will be of the scattered variety and it will not be a 
washout the next few days. Timing will be difficult in this type of 
pattern.

On Thursday, the last of the short waves during the week treks to 
our north, and an upper ridge builds just to our west. This means we 
should dry out for a couple days before the pattern goes more zonal 
again and precip comes back into the forecast late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Writing is on the wall for a large shield of rain with embedded TS
to impact the MPX terminal tonight through Sunday morning. 00z
CAMs came pretty much in line with what the HRRR has been showing,
so brought prevailing precip in to all terminals, though may not
be fast enough with it. Besides the rain, MVFR cigs look likely as
well and went with a blend of the LAV and HRRR for those.

KMSP...No avoiding the rain, which looks to begin impacting MSP
between 7z and 10z and will last through most of Sunday morning.
Lower confidence on how low cigs will go, but approaching 1k feet
is certainly plausible Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Wind SSE 10-20 kts. 
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/TSRA late. Winds S 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MPG