421 FXUS63 KMPX 010907 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 407 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018 Early morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas. Associated showers and isolated thunderstorms will result in a soggy morning over most of the area, but a notable decrease in activity will follow for the afternoon hours as the aforementioned wave ejects to the Great Lakes. After precip ends this afternoon, overall dry weather is expected into Monday. The minor exception could be for locations in the far northwest corner of the forecast area (near Alexandria), which could see a few showers tonight attendant with a shortwave trough skirting the International border. The duration would be short however, with little additional precipitation anticipated. Temperatures will retreat below normal today, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018 The pattern for the coming week looks to be characterized by fast upper flow just to our north and resultant chances of storms into Thursday, as well as slowly building heights while the eastern subtropical high gradually moves/expands westward. After today's jet core and upper trough move past our area, the next wind max approaches late tonight with around 100 knots at 250 mb over northern Minnesota by Monday morning. As it translates eastward and strengthens, lower levels respond with return flow and abundant moisture streaming into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Precipitable water values reach 1.5 inches Monday afternoon. Southerly winds at 850 mb look to reach about 35 knots. With morning and midday sunshine, temperature profiles with steep lapse rates may well set up tomorrow afternoon, especially in our western MN counties. Thus the outlook for possible severe weather later tomorrow looks reasonable. Once that system departs Monday night, upper flow takes on a bit more of a wsw to ene pattern, with occasional short waves and jetlets just to our west and north. Although heights and temperatures aloft will be very slowly increasing, abundant moisture remains, with precipitable water values from 1.5 to 2.1 inches staying with us through Thursday morning. Thus the atmosphere should remain unstable for the early and middle part of the coming week, and with periodic weak short waves brushing past the area, thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon through Thursday. The storms will be of the scattered variety and it will not be a washout the next few days. Timing will be difficult in this type of pattern. On Thursday, the last of the short waves during the week treks to our north, and an upper ridge builds just to our west. This means we should dry out for a couple days before the pattern goes more zonal again and precip comes back into the forecast late next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Writing is on the wall for a large shield of rain with embedded TS to impact the MPX terminal tonight through Sunday morning. 00z CAMs came pretty much in line with what the HRRR has been showing, so brought prevailing precip in to all terminals, though may not be fast enough with it. Besides the rain, MVFR cigs look likely as well and went with a blend of the LAV and HRRR for those. KMSP...No avoiding the rain, which looks to begin impacting MSP between 7z and 10z and will last through most of Sunday morning. Lower confidence on how low cigs will go, but approaching 1k feet is certainly plausible Sunday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind SSE 10-20 kts. Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/TSRA late. Winds S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...MPG