537 
FXUS64 KFWD 230510 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1210 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Metroplex: Predawn showers/storms possible. Wind shifts. 
Central Texas: Morning stratus likely. South flow.

The thunderstorms that originated on the High Plains of the Texas
Panhandle Friday afternoon have maintained their intensity on
their eastward trek across Oklahoma. The southeastern corner of 
the complex has maintained access to surface-based parcels and has
continued to produce severe winds. While the trailing elevated 
storms are now well behind the outflow which is racing toward the
Red River, the winds behind the outflow boundary are also
exceeding 50kts. Although it should lose some momentum as it
approaches the Metroplex, its current intensity is improving
confidence in a wind shift around 0700Z. Healthy cross-boundary
moisture flux may result in some showers along the outflow
near/within the Metroplex during the predawn hours, but the
thunderstorms should remain near or beyond the Bonham cornerpost.

Southerly winds should overwhelm the boundary after daybreak. The
moisture-rich low-level jet will surge stratus into Central Texas, 
but the outflow should prevent this deck from reaching the 
Metroplex. Once the south winds return to the Metroplex, some 
stratocu may briefly invade, but MVFR ceilings should remain to 
the south.

Despite the outflow boundary's retreat to the north, the rain-
cooled air and a late-season frontal surge will keep a rather
sharp boundary in place to our northwest. This may be a focus for
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon, activity that could 
approach from the northwest late in the day and into the evening 
hours. With the 06Z package, will refrain from introducing a 
potential time-frame for thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms may disrupt or delay the low-level jet Saturday
night. But if the convection isn't widespread into the evening
hours, a more widespread stratus intrusion is likely Saturday 
night.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/
/Through Tonight/

A decaying complex of thunderstorms briefly entered North Texas
this morning, sending an outflow boundary just south of the I-20
corridor. An associated MCV is moving through our northeast 
counties now and will move off to the east this evening, but am 
not expecting new convection to develop with this feature this 
evening. Instead, the feature worth watching will be the remnant 
outflow boundary from this morning's convection which currently 
coincides with a rather unimpressive cumulus field. While winds 
shifted to the north behind this boundary earlier today, they have
since come back around to the south, which will limit low-level 
convergence and ascent along the outflow. As a result, am 
expecting largely dry and hot conditions through this evening. 
Temperatures have soared this afternoon, and DFW officially 
reached 100F at 244pm for the first time this year. To the north, 
lingering clouds and cool outflow winds have kept temperatures a 
few degrees lower with highs struggling to reach 90 near the Red 
River.

Overnight, we'll be monitoring the potential for a thunderstorm
complex to move into North Texas from Oklahoma. Conditions are
fairly favorable for this to occur with the stalled frontal
boundary/trough located just to our north, intensifying flow 
through the low-levels, and ample elevated instability. Strong
winds and some hail would be possible with the complex should it
survive its trek into North Texas. Have kept generally 20-40% 
PoPs with the highest along the Red River taping off towards I-20.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/
/Saturday through Friday/

Convection may be ongoing near the Red River during the morning
hours as a complex of showers and thunderstorms moves through
Oklahoma. We'll maintain some 20-30% PoPs generally across our Red
River counties for any activity persisting into the mid morning
hours. Similar to this morning, convection should be in a
weakening state with clearing skies by afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, a surface trough and weak frontal boundary
will be located across west-central Texas into southern Oklahoma
just to the northwest of our CWA. Ahead of this feature it will be
hot and breezy with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph.
While high temperatures are again expected to climb to 100 to 103
degrees along and west of I-35 and heat indices will be near 105
degrees, the increased winds will provide some relief. Analysis of
forecast wet bulb globe temperatures for tomorrow indicate that
they will actually be a couple of degrees cooler than today as a
result of the increased winds. We'll hold off on a heat advisory
at this time and continue to monitor trends into Sunday. The
aforementioned frontal boundary will likely be a focus for
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening
hours off to the northwest. Most of the model guidance suggests
that a complex of thunderstorms will develop to the northwest and
with stronger ridging still shunted to the southwest, there is
some potential for thunderstorms to move across North Texas
tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, especially along and north of
I-20. Strong instability will be in place across the region into
the late evening hours and strengthening low level flow should
allow for increased convergence along any leading outflow
boundaries. We've raised PoPs to 40-60% across the far northwest 
counties for Saturday evening and 30-40% mainly north of I-20 into
the late evening hours. Given the strong instability and steep
lapse rates, any organized convection could pose a hail and
damaging wind risk into the late evening hours. Thunderstorms
should weaken during the overnight hours into early Sunday
morning.

Sunday should be another hot day with temperatures in the upper
90s to near 102 degrees. It'll remain breezy during this time with
a stronger system moving through the Plains. The increased winds
will again provide some relief to the hot weather. Most of next
week looks dry with stronger ridging building into North Texas.
Outside of some very low rain chances mid week, we'll keep the
forecast dry with highs in the mid to upper 90s each day.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  99  78  98  79 /  20   5  40   5   5 
Waco                79  98  77  97  78 /  10   5  20   5   5 
Paris               77  93  76  94  76 /  40  30  30  10   5 
Denton              80  99  78  99  78 /  20  10  40   5   5 
McKinney            77  97  77  98  77 /  20  20  40   5   5 
Dallas              82  99  78  99  79 /  20   5  40   5   5 
Terrell             78  96  76  96  78 /  20   5  30   5   5 
Corsicana           78  96  77  96  76 /  10   5  20   5   5 
Temple              76  97  77  96  76 /   5   5  10   5   5 
Mineral Wells       79 102  77 100  76 /  10   5  30   0   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/24

537 
FXUS64 KFWD 230510 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1210 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Metroplex: Predawn showers/storms possible. Wind shifts. 
Central Texas: Morning stratus likely. South flow.

The thunderstorms that originated on the High Plains of the Texas
Panhandle Friday afternoon have maintained their intensity on
their eastward trek across Oklahoma. The southeastern corner of 
the complex has maintained access to surface-based parcels and has
continued to produce severe winds. While the trailing elevated 
storms are now well behind the outflow which is racing toward the
Red River, the winds behind the outflow boundary are also
exceeding 50kts. Although it should lose some momentum as it
approaches the Metroplex, its current intensity is improving
confidence in a wind shift around 0700Z. Healthy cross-boundary
moisture flux may result in some showers along the outflow
near/within the Metroplex during the predawn hours, but the
thunderstorms should remain near or beyond the Bonham cornerpost.

Southerly winds should overwhelm the boundary after daybreak. The
moisture-rich low-level jet will surge stratus into Central Texas, 
but the outflow should prevent this deck from reaching the 
Metroplex. Once the south winds return to the Metroplex, some 
stratocu may briefly invade, but MVFR ceilings should remain to 
the south.

Despite the outflow boundary's retreat to the north, the rain-
cooled air and a late-season frontal surge will keep a rather
sharp boundary in place to our northwest. This may be a focus for
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon, activity that could 
approach from the northwest late in the day and into the evening 
hours. With the 06Z package, will refrain from introducing a 
potential time-frame for thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms may disrupt or delay the low-level jet Saturday
night. But if the convection isn't widespread into the evening
hours, a more widespread stratus intrusion is likely Saturday 
night.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/
/Through Tonight/

A decaying complex of thunderstorms briefly entered North Texas
this morning, sending an outflow boundary just south of the I-20
corridor. An associated MCV is moving through our northeast 
counties now and will move off to the east this evening, but am 
not expecting new convection to develop with this feature this 
evening. Instead, the feature worth watching will be the remnant 
outflow boundary from this morning's convection which currently 
coincides with a rather unimpressive cumulus field. While winds 
shifted to the north behind this boundary earlier today, they have
since come back around to the south, which will limit low-level 
convergence and ascent along the outflow. As a result, am 
expecting largely dry and hot conditions through this evening. 
Temperatures have soared this afternoon, and DFW officially 
reached 100F at 244pm for the first time this year. To the north, 
lingering clouds and cool outflow winds have kept temperatures a 
few degrees lower with highs struggling to reach 90 near the Red 
River.

Overnight, we'll be monitoring the potential for a thunderstorm
complex to move into North Texas from Oklahoma. Conditions are
fairly favorable for this to occur with the stalled frontal
boundary/trough located just to our north, intensifying flow 
through the low-levels, and ample elevated instability. Strong
winds and some hail would be possible with the complex should it
survive its trek into North Texas. Have kept generally 20-40% 
PoPs with the highest along the Red River taping off towards I-20.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/
/Saturday through Friday/

Convection may be ongoing near the Red River during the morning
hours as a complex of showers and thunderstorms moves through
Oklahoma. We'll maintain some 20-30% PoPs generally across our Red
River counties for any activity persisting into the mid morning
hours. Similar to this morning, convection should be in a
weakening state with clearing skies by afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, a surface trough and weak frontal boundary
will be located across west-central Texas into southern Oklahoma
just to the northwest of our CWA. Ahead of this feature it will be
hot and breezy with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph.
While high temperatures are again expected to climb to 100 to 103
degrees along and west of I-35 and heat indices will be near 105
degrees, the increased winds will provide some relief. Analysis of
forecast wet bulb globe temperatures for tomorrow indicate that
they will actually be a couple of degrees cooler than today as a
result of the increased winds. We'll hold off on a heat advisory
at this time and continue to monitor trends into Sunday. The
aforementioned frontal boundary will likely be a focus for
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening
hours off to the northwest. Most of the model guidance suggests
that a complex of thunderstorms will develop to the northwest and
with stronger ridging still shunted to the southwest, there is
some potential for thunderstorms to move across North Texas
tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, especially along and north of
I-20. Strong instability will be in place across the region into
the late evening hours and strengthening low level flow should
allow for increased convergence along any leading outflow
boundaries. We've raised PoPs to 40-60% across the far northwest 
counties for Saturday evening and 30-40% mainly north of I-20 into
the late evening hours. Given the strong instability and steep
lapse rates, any organized convection could pose a hail and
damaging wind risk into the late evening hours. Thunderstorms
should weaken during the overnight hours into early Sunday
morning.

Sunday should be another hot day with temperatures in the upper
90s to near 102 degrees. It'll remain breezy during this time with
a stronger system moving through the Plains. The increased winds
will again provide some relief to the hot weather. Most of next
week looks dry with stronger ridging building into North Texas.
Outside of some very low rain chances mid week, we'll keep the
forecast dry with highs in the mid to upper 90s each day.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  99  78  98  79 /  20   5  40   5   5 
Waco                79  98  77  97  78 /  10   5  20   5   5 
Paris               77  93  76  94  76 /  40  30  30  10   5 
Denton              80  99  78  99  78 /  20  10  40   5   5 
McKinney            77  97  77  98  77 /  20  20  40   5   5 
Dallas              82  99  78  99  79 /  20   5  40   5   5 
Terrell             78  96  76  96  78 /  20   5  30   5   5 
Corsicana           78  96  77  96  76 /  10   5  20   5   5 
Temple              76  97  77  96  76 /   5   5  10   5   5 
Mineral Wells       79 102  77 100  76 /  10   5  30   0   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/24