537 FXUS64 KFWD 230510 AAB AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1210 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFs/ Metroplex: Predawn showers/storms possible. Wind shifts. Central Texas: Morning stratus likely. South flow. The thunderstorms that originated on the High Plains of the Texas Panhandle Friday afternoon have maintained their intensity on their eastward trek across Oklahoma. The southeastern corner of the complex has maintained access to surface-based parcels and has continued to produce severe winds. While the trailing elevated storms are now well behind the outflow which is racing toward the Red River, the winds behind the outflow boundary are also exceeding 50kts. Although it should lose some momentum as it approaches the Metroplex, its current intensity is improving confidence in a wind shift around 0700Z. Healthy cross-boundary moisture flux may result in some showers along the outflow near/within the Metroplex during the predawn hours, but the thunderstorms should remain near or beyond the Bonham cornerpost. Southerly winds should overwhelm the boundary after daybreak. The moisture-rich low-level jet will surge stratus into Central Texas, but the outflow should prevent this deck from reaching the Metroplex. Once the south winds return to the Metroplex, some stratocu may briefly invade, but MVFR ceilings should remain to the south. Despite the outflow boundary's retreat to the north, the rain- cooled air and a late-season frontal surge will keep a rather sharp boundary in place to our northwest. This may be a focus for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon, activity that could approach from the northwest late in the day and into the evening hours. With the 06Z package, will refrain from introducing a potential time-frame for thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may disrupt or delay the low-level jet Saturday night. But if the convection isn't widespread into the evening hours, a more widespread stratus intrusion is likely Saturday night. 25 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/ /Through Tonight/ A decaying complex of thunderstorms briefly entered North Texas this morning, sending an outflow boundary just south of the I-20 corridor. An associated MCV is moving through our northeast counties now and will move off to the east this evening, but am not expecting new convection to develop with this feature this evening. Instead, the feature worth watching will be the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's convection which currently coincides with a rather unimpressive cumulus field. While winds shifted to the north behind this boundary earlier today, they have since come back around to the south, which will limit low-level convergence and ascent along the outflow. As a result, am expecting largely dry and hot conditions through this evening. Temperatures have soared this afternoon, and DFW officially reached 100F at 244pm for the first time this year. To the north, lingering clouds and cool outflow winds have kept temperatures a few degrees lower with highs struggling to reach 90 near the Red River. Overnight, we'll be monitoring the potential for a thunderstorm complex to move into North Texas from Oklahoma. Conditions are fairly favorable for this to occur with the stalled frontal boundary/trough located just to our north, intensifying flow through the low-levels, and ample elevated instability. Strong winds and some hail would be possible with the complex should it survive its trek into North Texas. Have kept generally 20-40% PoPs with the highest along the Red River taping off towards I-20. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 356 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/ /Saturday through Friday/ Convection may be ongoing near the Red River during the morning hours as a complex of showers and thunderstorms moves through Oklahoma. We'll maintain some 20-30% PoPs generally across our Red River counties for any activity persisting into the mid morning hours. Similar to this morning, convection should be in a weakening state with clearing skies by afternoon. By Saturday afternoon, a surface trough and weak frontal boundary will be located across west-central Texas into southern Oklahoma just to the northwest of our CWA. Ahead of this feature it will be hot and breezy with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph. While high temperatures are again expected to climb to 100 to 103 degrees along and west of I-35 and heat indices will be near 105 degrees, the increased winds will provide some relief. Analysis of forecast wet bulb globe temperatures for tomorrow indicate that they will actually be a couple of degrees cooler than today as a result of the increased winds. We'll hold off on a heat advisory at this time and continue to monitor trends into Sunday. The aforementioned frontal boundary will likely be a focus for thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening hours off to the northwest. Most of the model guidance suggests that a complex of thunderstorms will develop to the northwest and with stronger ridging still shunted to the southwest, there is some potential for thunderstorms to move across North Texas tomorrow evening and tomorrow night, especially along and north of I-20. Strong instability will be in place across the region into the late evening hours and strengthening low level flow should allow for increased convergence along any leading outflow boundaries. We've raised PoPs to 40-60% across the far northwest counties for Saturday evening and 30-40% mainly north of I-20 into the late evening hours. Given the strong instability and steep lapse rates, any organized convection could pose a hail and damaging wind risk into the late evening hours. Thunderstorms should weaken during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Sunday should be another hot day with temperatures in the upper 90s to near 102 degrees. It'll remain breezy during this time with a stronger system moving through the Plains. The increased winds will again provide some relief to the hot weather. Most of next week looks dry with stronger ridging building into North Texas. Outside of some very low rain chances mid week, we'll keep the forecast dry with highs in the mid to upper 90s each day. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 99 78 98 79 / 20 5 40 5 5 Waco 79 98 77 97 78 / 10 5 20 5 5 Paris 77 93 76 94 76 / 40 30 30 10 5 Denton 80 99 78 99 78 / 20 10 40 5 5 McKinney 77 97 77 98 77 / 20 20 40 5 5 Dallas 82 99 78 99 79 / 20 5 40 5 5 Terrell 78 96 76 96 78 / 20 5 30 5 5 Corsicana 78 96 77 96 76 / 10 5 20 5 5 Temple 76 97 77 96 76 / 5 5 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 79 102 77 100 76 / 10 5 30 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 25/24