664 
FXUS62 KMHX 111100
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this afternoon and exit this
evening. The front will linger over the area through mid week. 
Another cold front will move through by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 7 AM Mon...Whats left of some stratiform light rain
associated with weakening MCV is exiting E NC this morning. A
few lightning strikes still occurring offshore but these storms
are moving away from the coastal waters. Debris clouds left in
wake of the complex will scatter out later this morning with
partly sunny skies expected.

Previous discussion... As of 340 AM Mon...Area of 
showers and a couple storms brushing by the FA to the north, as 
weak short wave passes through the region. Weak sfc low is 
residing across VA early this morning, and will drag a cold 
front through E NC this afternoon. Strong instability will 
develop today as temps climb to around 90 once again southern 
half of the FA. TD's well into the 70s will combine with the hot
temps to produce sfc based CAPES to aoa 3,000 J/KG this 
afternoon. While appreciable shear is lacking, the frontal 
boundary pushing south at an opportune time, mid to late 
afternoon, will be enough to produce widespread TSRA spreading 
from north to south this afternoon. Threat will be heavy rain 
and frequent lightning owing to the large CAPE vals. An iso 
damaging downburst wind gust is also possible in the high PW 
environment. Storms will finally reach the Crystal coast by 
early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Mon...Threat for heavy rain in thunderstorms will 
be confined to southern zones early this evening as front pushes
through. Will continue chc showers for rest of the area, best 
chances to the south, as shortwave energy will be passing 
through E NC overnight despite the sfc front having passed 
through. Some embedded thunder will also be possible as elevated
CAPE remains. Lows cool back to near climo with readings in the
mid/upr 60s interior to around 70 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Unsettled weather expected much of the work
week with a moist unstable airmass in place and a frontal 
boundary in the vicinity. A stronger front is expected to push 
across the area late in the week with drier conditions next 
weekend.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...A backdoor front expected to be just
south of the area early Tuesday and gradually lift back north
through Tuesday evening. A weak low pressure may also develop 
along the front early Tuesday and slowly lifting NE through 
Tuesday night. Frontal convergence, weak shortwave energy moving
through flow aloft along with a moist and unstable airmass in 
place, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the 
area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With 
PW values around 2" thunderstorms could produce locally heavy 
rainfall amounts, especially if training of storms develop along
the boundary. Greater cloud cover will likely keep temps a 
little lower Tuesday with highs expected in the mid 80s inland 
to lower 80s coast. 

Wednesday through Friday...The front lifts back north of the
area by Wednesday with shortwave energy and an attendant 
surface low tracking from the Great Lakes into northern New
England. Models continue differ whether the trailing cold front
briefly pushes into the area late Wednesday night/early 
Thursday before lifting back to the north. The GFS/CMC are a bit
stronger with the front pushing into the area with enhances 
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night but this isn't supported 
in the ECMWF. A stronger upper level system dives south across
the eastern CONUS late in the week with a stronger cold front
progged to push across the area. Models are not in very good 
agreement with the strength of the upper level system or the
timing of the front. The ECMWF is stronger and faster with this
system pushing into the area Thursday night into Friday while 
other global models are slower and a bit weaker holding off
until late Friday or early Saturday. Predominantly SW flow will
bring very warm conditions with highs in the upper 80s/lower 
90s inland and mid/upper 80s coast.

Saturday and Sunday...The northern stream system continues to
push south across the area Saturday but there is quite a bit of
model spread with the evolution of the upper level system and
potential surface low development off the coast. Models are even 
trying to develop a cut-off low somewhere off the Southeast 
coast late in the weekend. While large model differences are
leading to a low confidence forecast as we move into next
weekend, it does appear we may briefly move into a period of
drier conditions and a more comfortable airmass, especially on 
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Mon...A cold front will move through E NC this 
afternoon. A complex of showers and storms will develop along 
and ahead of the front as it moves south. Heavy rain and lowered
vsbys can be expected with the storms, and have included tempo 
groups to account for most likely timing of the storms. A 
lowering of cigs to IFR is possible tonight as winds will be 
light northeasterly and abundant low level moisture remains in 
place.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
As of 430 AM Monday...Unsettled conditions expected to prevail 
through the period with a moist unstable airmass in place and a 
frontal boundary across or near the area much of the period. 
Pred VFR expected outside of convection except during the late 
night/early morning periods when patchy fog will be possible 
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight...
As of 340 AM Mon...Cold front wl sag S through the waters 
today. The front will finally push south of the Crystal coast 
during the early evening. Winds N of front will shift to the NNE
at 10 to 20 kts this afternoon, while S of the front will be 10
to 20 kt out of the SW. Seas will continue 2 to 4 feet through 
today, then build to 4 to 6 ft for the northern waters after
around midnight, which will prompt a SCA to be issued.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
As of 430 AM Monday...SCA conditions expected to continue
through Tuesday evening across the northern and central coastal
waters. Another chance for SCA conditions will be possible
across the central and southern coastal waters late Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

A front is expected to be stalled just south of the area early 
Tuesday then lift back to the N Tuesday and Tuesday evening. The
front may dip back into the area Wednesday night/early Thursday
but not all models showing this happening leading to lower 
confidence in winds this period. Winds expected to be NE around 
10-20 kt Tuesday morning, but gradually diminish while veering 
to E/SE through the day. S to SE winds around 5-15 kt Tuesday 
night becomes SW by early Wednesday, which increases to 10-20 kt
during the afternoon and could be as strong as 20-25 kt late 
Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern and central 
waters as gradients tightening in response to a low pressure 
area passing to the north and the attendant cold front
approaching the area. The trailing cold front briefly push into
the northern waters but guidance is not in best agreement 
whether this will happen. Another front may push into the area
sometime Friday or Friday night but models are not in good
agreement with this system either.

Seas expected around 5-7 ft northern/central waters and 2-4 ft
southern waters Tuesday, which is expected to subside to 2-5 ft
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, highest north. Seas briefly
build to 4-6 ft across the southern and central waters late
Wednesday and Wednesday night in response to stronger SW flow.
Seas currently progged to be around 2-4 ft on Thursday and 2-3
ft Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday 
     night for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT 
     Tuesday night for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday 
     night for AMZ152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL