664 FXUS62 KMHX 111100 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through this afternoon and exit this evening. The front will linger over the area through mid week. Another cold front will move through by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 7 AM Mon...Whats left of some stratiform light rain associated with weakening MCV is exiting E NC this morning. A few lightning strikes still occurring offshore but these storms are moving away from the coastal waters. Debris clouds left in wake of the complex will scatter out later this morning with partly sunny skies expected. Previous discussion... As of 340 AM Mon...Area of showers and a couple storms brushing by the FA to the north, as weak short wave passes through the region. Weak sfc low is residing across VA early this morning, and will drag a cold front through E NC this afternoon. Strong instability will develop today as temps climb to around 90 once again southern half of the FA. TD's well into the 70s will combine with the hot temps to produce sfc based CAPES to aoa 3,000 J/KG this afternoon. While appreciable shear is lacking, the frontal boundary pushing south at an opportune time, mid to late afternoon, will be enough to produce widespread TSRA spreading from north to south this afternoon. Threat will be heavy rain and frequent lightning owing to the large CAPE vals. An iso damaging downburst wind gust is also possible in the high PW environment. Storms will finally reach the Crystal coast by early evening. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM Mon...Threat for heavy rain in thunderstorms will be confined to southern zones early this evening as front pushes through. Will continue chc showers for rest of the area, best chances to the south, as shortwave energy will be passing through E NC overnight despite the sfc front having passed through. Some embedded thunder will also be possible as elevated CAPE remains. Lows cool back to near climo with readings in the mid/upr 60s interior to around 70 coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Monday...Unsettled weather expected much of the work week with a moist unstable airmass in place and a frontal boundary in the vicinity. A stronger front is expected to push across the area late in the week with drier conditions next weekend. Tuesday and Tuesday Night...A backdoor front expected to be just south of the area early Tuesday and gradually lift back north through Tuesday evening. A weak low pressure may also develop along the front early Tuesday and slowly lifting NE through Tuesday night. Frontal convergence, weak shortwave energy moving through flow aloft along with a moist and unstable airmass in place, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With PW values around 2" thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts, especially if training of storms develop along the boundary. Greater cloud cover will likely keep temps a little lower Tuesday with highs expected in the mid 80s inland to lower 80s coast. Wednesday through Friday...The front lifts back north of the area by Wednesday with shortwave energy and an attendant surface low tracking from the Great Lakes into northern New England. Models continue differ whether the trailing cold front briefly pushes into the area late Wednesday night/early Thursday before lifting back to the north. The GFS/CMC are a bit stronger with the front pushing into the area with enhances showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night but this isn't supported in the ECMWF. A stronger upper level system dives south across the eastern CONUS late in the week with a stronger cold front progged to push across the area. Models are not in very good agreement with the strength of the upper level system or the timing of the front. The ECMWF is stronger and faster with this system pushing into the area Thursday night into Friday while other global models are slower and a bit weaker holding off until late Friday or early Saturday. Predominantly SW flow will bring very warm conditions with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s inland and mid/upper 80s coast. Saturday and Sunday...The northern stream system continues to push south across the area Saturday but there is quite a bit of model spread with the evolution of the upper level system and potential surface low development off the coast. Models are even trying to develop a cut-off low somewhere off the Southeast coast late in the weekend. While large model differences are leading to a low confidence forecast as we move into next weekend, it does appear we may briefly move into a period of drier conditions and a more comfortable airmass, especially on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Mon...A cold front will move through E NC this afternoon. A complex of showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Heavy rain and lowered vsbys can be expected with the storms, and have included tempo groups to account for most likely timing of the storms. A lowering of cigs to IFR is possible tonight as winds will be light northeasterly and abundant low level moisture remains in place. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Monday...Unsettled conditions expected to prevail through the period with a moist unstable airmass in place and a frontal boundary across or near the area much of the period. Pred VFR expected outside of convection except during the late night/early morning periods when patchy fog will be possible each day. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight... As of 340 AM Mon...Cold front wl sag S through the waters today. The front will finally push south of the Crystal coast during the early evening. Winds N of front will shift to the NNE at 10 to 20 kts this afternoon, while S of the front will be 10 to 20 kt out of the SW. Seas will continue 2 to 4 feet through today, then build to 4 to 6 ft for the northern waters after around midnight, which will prompt a SCA to be issued. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Monday...SCA conditions expected to continue through Tuesday evening across the northern and central coastal waters. Another chance for SCA conditions will be possible across the central and southern coastal waters late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A front is expected to be stalled just south of the area early Tuesday then lift back to the N Tuesday and Tuesday evening. The front may dip back into the area Wednesday night/early Thursday but not all models showing this happening leading to lower confidence in winds this period. Winds expected to be NE around 10-20 kt Tuesday morning, but gradually diminish while veering to E/SE through the day. S to SE winds around 5-15 kt Tuesday night becomes SW by early Wednesday, which increases to 10-20 kt during the afternoon and could be as strong as 20-25 kt late Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern and central waters as gradients tightening in response to a low pressure area passing to the north and the attendant cold front approaching the area. The trailing cold front briefly push into the northern waters but guidance is not in best agreement whether this will happen. Another front may push into the area sometime Friday or Friday night but models are not in good agreement with this system either. Seas expected around 5-7 ft northern/central waters and 2-4 ft southern waters Tuesday, which is expected to subside to 2-5 ft late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, highest north. Seas briefly build to 4-6 ft across the southern and central waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night in response to stronger SW flow. Seas currently progged to be around 2-4 ft on Thursday and 2-3 ft Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/TL MARINE...SK/TL