412 
FXUS61 KBTV 011922
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service ALBANY NY
322 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Wednesday  
with a return of mainly fair weather and much warmer 
temperatures. The dry weather will be short lived as rounds of 
showers and a few thunderstorms return to the region for 
Wednesday night into Friday before mainly fair weather returns 
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High Pressure along the eastern seaboard will result in dry
weather overnight with mostly clear skies and mild conditions
for early May. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with
winds becoming light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of Wednesday looks dry at this point in time, however there
will be a slight chance of showers late in the day. Skies look
to be partly to mostly sunny and it will be very mild as H8
temps rise to +12 to +14 C. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 
upper 60s to lower 80s.

Unsettled weather is in store for Wednesday night through Friday
as there is a chance of thunderstorms each period along with 
increasing chance for showers. Showalter values lower to near 
zero with MLMUCapes rising to 500 to 1000 J/KG by Thursday 
afternoon. Not only will it be unsettled, but some locally heavy
rainfall will be possible as well especially during 
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Lows Wednesday night will be 
in the 50s to lower 60s with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to
around 80. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 40s to 
upper 50s with highs on Friday in the upper 50s to lower 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Current indications are that the long term will be characterized by 
mean broad low-amplitude troughing. There may be a few chances for 
light precipitation, and temperatures look to average around normal.

Model consensus supports a drier airmass taking hold Friday night 
into Saturday in the wake of a frontal passage, leading to 
diminishing precipitation chances with time as the moister air is 
shunted to the south. A dry forecast is favored for Saturday. Poor 
model consensus for high temperatures Saturday, with the ECMX MOS 
around 10F lower than the GFSX MOS. The forecast leans toward a 
blend of the two. It remains to be seen whether low-amplitude 
disturbances could generate more light precipitation chances Sunday 
into early next week, or whether high pressure can make enough 
inroads from the west to keep things dry. The potential for any 
widespread precipitation event in this period is low at present.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR expected the next 24 hours for the
northern NY and north-central VT TAF sites. Some sct-bkn mid
level and upper level clouds will persist this afternoon, as
some mid and upper level ridging builds in. 

The winds this afternoon will be south to west at 5-10 kts, and
will be light at less than 7 kts early this evening. The 2 kft
AGL winds will increase to 35-45 kts around 03Z-06Z with LLWS
likely. Wind shear groups were added to all the TAF sites,
except KBTV. They were generally added at 03Z-06Z, except at
KSLK where it was started at 00Z/WED. The sfc winds will
strengthen from the southwest to west at 10-18 kts with some
gusts to 18-28 kts in the late morning, so the LLWS groups were
dropped between 12Z-14Z/WED. Some mid and high clouds will
continue during the late morning into the afternoon. 

Outlook...

Wednesday PM: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance 
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. 
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy 
with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. 
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Occasional SHRA, Chance
TSRA. 
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, 
Chance TSRA. 
Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Occasional SHRA, 
Chance TSRA. 
Friday Night: Chance SHRA. 
Saturday: Slight chance SHRA. 
Saturday Night to Sunday...No sig wx.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NWS ALY
NEAR TERM...NWS ALY
SHORT TERM...NWS ALY
LONG TERM...NWS ALY
AVIATION...NWS ALY