412 FXUS61 KBTV 011922 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT Issued by National Weather Service ALBANY NY 322 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through Wednesday with a return of mainly fair weather and much warmer temperatures. The dry weather will be short lived as rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms return to the region for Wednesday night into Friday before mainly fair weather returns for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... High Pressure along the eastern seaboard will result in dry weather overnight with mostly clear skies and mild conditions for early May. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with winds becoming light and variable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Much of Wednesday looks dry at this point in time, however there will be a slight chance of showers late in the day. Skies look to be partly to mostly sunny and it will be very mild as H8 temps rise to +12 to +14 C. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Unsettled weather is in store for Wednesday night through Friday as there is a chance of thunderstorms each period along with increasing chance for showers. Showalter values lower to near zero with MLMUCapes rising to 500 to 1000 J/KG by Thursday afternoon. Not only will it be unsettled, but some locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well especially during thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s to lower 60s with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to around 80. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Friday in the upper 50s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Current indications are that the long term will be characterized by mean broad low-amplitude troughing. There may be a few chances for light precipitation, and temperatures look to average around normal. Model consensus supports a drier airmass taking hold Friday night into Saturday in the wake of a frontal passage, leading to diminishing precipitation chances with time as the moister air is shunted to the south. A dry forecast is favored for Saturday. Poor model consensus for high temperatures Saturday, with the ECMX MOS around 10F lower than the GFSX MOS. The forecast leans toward a blend of the two. It remains to be seen whether low-amplitude disturbances could generate more light precipitation chances Sunday into early next week, or whether high pressure can make enough inroads from the west to keep things dry. The potential for any widespread precipitation event in this period is low at present. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR expected the next 24 hours for the northern NY and north-central VT TAF sites. Some sct-bkn mid level and upper level clouds will persist this afternoon, as some mid and upper level ridging builds in. The winds this afternoon will be south to west at 5-10 kts, and will be light at less than 7 kts early this evening. The 2 kft AGL winds will increase to 35-45 kts around 03Z-06Z with LLWS likely. Wind shear groups were added to all the TAF sites, except KBTV. They were generally added at 03Z-06Z, except at KSLK where it was started at 00Z/WED. The sfc winds will strengthen from the southwest to west at 10-18 kts with some gusts to 18-28 kts in the late morning, so the LLWS groups were dropped between 12Z-14Z/WED. Some mid and high clouds will continue during the late morning into the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday PM: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Occasional SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Occasional SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: Chance SHRA. Saturday: Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night to Sunday...No sig wx. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NWS ALY NEAR TERM...NWS ALY SHORT TERM...NWS ALY LONG TERM...NWS ALY AVIATION...NWS ALY