159 
FXUS64 KMOB 302052 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL 
350 PM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Mid and high clouds will move 
south and east out of the area as an upper shortwave moves east of 
the area. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure will build across the 
area tonight and move east of the area on Saturday. This will 
maintain clear skies through the period with a light southerly flow 
developing by Saturday afternoon. A drier airmass along with clear 
skies and light winds will allow lows tonight to drop into the low 
to mid 40s inland and low 50s along the coast. Highs on Saturday 
will climb into the low to mid 70s inland to low 70s along the 
coast. /13


.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A broad upper
level trough will gradually move eastward across the eastern CONUS
late this weekend, leaving a primarily zonal flow pattern aloft
across the central Gulf Coast region through late Monday. A
surface ridge of high pressure will also remain oriented from the
western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf Coast region through Monday
night. A deep layer dry airmass will remain entrenched over our
forecast area with no precipitation expected through the short
term period. Another cool night is anticipated Saturday night with
low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland and lower to mid
50s near the coast, or a few degrees below normal. Low temperatures
will modify back to above normal readings Sunday and Monday 
nights as southerly flow brings a return of low level moisture
back to the region. Highs Sunday and Monday are expected to warm
into the upper 70s to lower 80s over most locations. /21 


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The mid level flow pattern
will amplify a bit Tuesday as the next upper level trough develops
over the central U.S. A shortwave trough embedded in the west to
southwest flow aloft on the base of this larger scale feature is
expected to lift from the vicinity of southern Texas Tuesday
toward the central Gulf Coast region Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. An associated cold front is also forecast to
push southeastward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valley region Tuesday night, before sweeping through our forecast
area Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. A few showers
or possibly a thunderstorm could develop in the warm advection 
regime ahead of the approaching front during the day Tuesday. 
Deep layer moisture and ascent will increase considerably across 
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama ahead of the 
approaching shortwave trough and cold front Tuesday night, and 
eventually across the rest of our forecast area Wednesday morning.
We will carry likely POPs (55-60%) over our northwestern zones 
Tuesday night, with 30-50% coverage farther south and east. We will 
then have the zone of 50-60% POPs spreading farther south and east 
into Wednesday morning along the cold front. There still remains 
some uncertainty on the available instability Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning ahead of the next front. The ECMWF is more 
optimistic on available instability with 500-800 J/KG of MLCAPE, 
along with 30-40 knots of 850 mb flow, so we may need to monitor for 
a few strong storms ahead of the approaching front. Dry weather 
follows Wednesday night through Thursday night, before the next 
approaching trough potentially brings the next chance of rain by 
Friday or Friday night. /21

&&

.MARINE...Northeasterly flow will increase tonight as high pressure 
builds across the Tennessee Valley and continues through Saturday 
morning as high pressure slides east. A generally light southerly 
flow will follow through early next week. Southerly flow increases 
late in the period as another cold front approaches from the 
northwest. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      47  73  49  78  57  81  64  80 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
  0  30 Pensacola   51  71  53  75  58  76  65  78 /   0   0   0   0 
  0  10   0  20 Destin      53  70  57  73  60  74  66  77 /   0   0 
  0   0   0  10   0  20 Evergreen   44  75  46  81  53  83  61  82 / 
  0   0   0   0   0  10   0  30 Waynesboro  43  73  45  80  52  80 
61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  40 Camden      44  74  46  80 
53  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  40 Crestview   46  75 
44  81  52  80  61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  20 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-
266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-
204-     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT 
     Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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