159 FXUS64 KMOB 302052 CCA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mobile AL 350 PM CDT Fri Mar 30 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Mid and high clouds will move south and east out of the area as an upper shortwave moves east of the area. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure will build across the area tonight and move east of the area on Saturday. This will maintain clear skies through the period with a light southerly flow developing by Saturday afternoon. A drier airmass along with clear skies and light winds will allow lows tonight to drop into the low to mid 40s inland and low 50s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will climb into the low to mid 70s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13 .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A broad upper level trough will gradually move eastward across the eastern CONUS late this weekend, leaving a primarily zonal flow pattern aloft across the central Gulf Coast region through late Monday. A surface ridge of high pressure will also remain oriented from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf Coast region through Monday night. A deep layer dry airmass will remain entrenched over our forecast area with no precipitation expected through the short term period. Another cool night is anticipated Saturday night with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland and lower to mid 50s near the coast, or a few degrees below normal. Low temperatures will modify back to above normal readings Sunday and Monday nights as southerly flow brings a return of low level moisture back to the region. Highs Sunday and Monday are expected to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s over most locations. /21 .LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The mid level flow pattern will amplify a bit Tuesday as the next upper level trough develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough embedded in the west to southwest flow aloft on the base of this larger scale feature is expected to lift from the vicinity of southern Texas Tuesday toward the central Gulf Coast region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. An associated cold front is also forecast to push southeastward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valley region Tuesday night, before sweeping through our forecast area Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. A few showers or possibly a thunderstorm could develop in the warm advection regime ahead of the approaching front during the day Tuesday. Deep layer moisture and ascent will increase considerably across southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold front Tuesday night, and eventually across the rest of our forecast area Wednesday morning. We will carry likely POPs (55-60%) over our northwestern zones Tuesday night, with 30-50% coverage farther south and east. We will then have the zone of 50-60% POPs spreading farther south and east into Wednesday morning along the cold front. There still remains some uncertainty on the available instability Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of the next front. The ECMWF is more optimistic on available instability with 500-800 J/KG of MLCAPE, along with 30-40 knots of 850 mb flow, so we may need to monitor for a few strong storms ahead of the approaching front. Dry weather follows Wednesday night through Thursday night, before the next approaching trough potentially brings the next chance of rain by Friday or Friday night. /21 && .MARINE...Northeasterly flow will increase tonight as high pressure builds across the Tennessee Valley and continues through Saturday morning as high pressure slides east. A generally light southerly flow will follow through early next week. Southerly flow increases late in the period as another cold front approaches from the northwest. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 47 73 49 78 57 81 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 30 Pensacola 51 71 53 75 58 76 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 Destin 53 70 57 73 60 74 66 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 Evergreen 44 75 46 81 53 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 30 Waynesboro 43 73 45 80 52 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 Camden 44 74 46 80 53 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 40 Crestview 46 75 44 81 52 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265- 266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202- 204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob