National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDEAX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDEAX
Product Timestamp: 2018-01-18 10:57 UTC
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266 FXUS63 KEAX 181057 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 457 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 255 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018 The warming trend will continue today as much like yesterday, southwest winds will warm the area through the day. Unlike yesterday we will start the day in the about 15 to 20 degrees warmer in the teens. Also, strong northerly flow aloft will relax today. Models suggest highs will reach into the upper 30s to mid 40s however, do not believe they are handling snowpack on the ground well and have kept highs in the mid to upper 30s. Friday, temperatures will warm considerably, as weak upper level ridging will build into the region, modest WAA will persist, and snowpack should begin to be whittled down on Thursday. This should allow highs to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s. WAA will continue on Saturday ushering in mostly cloudy skies. Models are trying to produce light QPF during the day however, with no forcing mechanism apparent, think there could be some patchy light drizzle but wouldn't expect showers. Despite the mostly cloudy skies highs will still reach the mid 40s to mid 50s. Sunday and Monday continue to look like unsettled days this forecast period. During the day Sunday a upper level trough will move from the eastern Rockies into the western Plains This will force a cold front into the towards the area with shower chances during the day Sunday. Models have come into much better agreement on timing of the cold front getting into the area as well as the location of a surface low along the front. Most models now move the front into the area late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. If the earlier solution comes to fruition that would lead to the chance for seeing a few thunderstorms. Although both 1km and 6km shear values are off the chart during this period, the limiting factor looks to be the instability with CAPE values only in the 100-200J/Kg range. Models also bring a surface low into northwestern Missouri Sunday evening. This will help wrap around much cooler air on the backside of the low and allow rain to mix with or change over to snow late Sunday night into Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected. Temperatures on sunday should still be quite warm with the frontal passage not making it into the area until late in the day. Expect highs in the upper 40s across the northwest to highs in the lower 60s across central Missouri. Highs behind the front on Monday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Surface highs pressure then looks to build into the region for the middle of next week drying conditions out with seasonable temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 457 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018 VFR conds are expected with mostly clear skies. Winds will be out of the SSW btn 8-15kts thru the TAF pd. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...73 Aviation...73