266 
FXUS63 KEAX 181057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
457 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018

The warming trend will continue today as much like yesterday, 
southwest winds will warm the area through the day. Unlike yesterday 
we will start the day in the about 15 to 20 degrees warmer in the 
teens. Also, strong northerly flow aloft will relax today. Models 
suggest highs will reach into the upper 30s to mid 40s however, do 
not believe they are handling snowpack on the ground well and have 
kept highs in the mid to upper 30s. Friday, temperatures will warm 
considerably, as weak upper level ridging will build into the 
region, modest WAA will persist, and snowpack should begin to be 
whittled down on Thursday. This should allow highs to reach the mid 
40s to lower 50s. WAA will continue on Saturday ushering in mostly 
cloudy skies. Models are trying to produce light QPF during the day 
however, with no forcing mechanism apparent, think there could be 
some patchy light drizzle but wouldn't expect showers. Despite the 
mostly cloudy skies highs will still reach the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday and Monday continue to look like unsettled days this forecast 
period. During the day Sunday a upper level trough will move from 
the eastern Rockies into the western Plains This will force a cold 
front into the towards the area with shower chances during the day 
Sunday. Models have come into much better agreement on timing of the 
cold front getting into the area as well as the location of a 
surface low along the front. Most models now move the front into the 
area late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. If the earlier 
solution comes to fruition that would lead to the chance for seeing 
a few thunderstorms. Although both 1km and 6km shear values are off 
the chart during this period, the limiting factor looks to be the 
instability with CAPE values only in the 100-200J/Kg range. Models 
also bring a surface low into northwestern Missouri Sunday evening. 
This will help wrap around much cooler air on the backside of the 
low and allow rain to mix with or change over to snow late Sunday 
night into Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected. 
Temperatures on sunday should still be quite warm with the frontal 
passage not making it into the area until late in the day. Expect 
highs in the upper 40s across the northwest to highs in the lower 
60s across central Missouri. Highs behind the front on Monday will 
be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Surface highs pressure then looks to 
build into the region for the middle of next week drying conditions 
out with seasonable temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 457 AM CST THU JAN 18 2018

VFR conds are expected with mostly clear skies. Winds will be out
of the SSW btn 8-15kts thru the TAF pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73