645 
FXUS65 KABQ 200534 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1034 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions with just bands of high cirrus clouds through the 
next 24 hours. Stronger winds will impact the mountains and adjacent 
highlands of central New Mexico Monday afternoon with potential 
mountain wave activity. Gusts around 40kt will be common in these 
areas. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...832 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017...
.UPDATE...
A quick update to lower a few temperatures overnight, mainly in
valley locations like Farmington, the Albuquerque area and Roswell. 
Zones out shortly. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week 
keeping the weather dry. A surface trough in the lee of the southern 
Rockies will induce breezy to windy conditions east of the central 
mountains Monday with fire weather concerns. The warming trend that 
began this afternoon will continue through the work week, except for 
brief cooling behind a back door cold front in the east Tuesday 
afternoon and night. Some near record and record high temperatures 
will be possible starting Wednesday west of the continental divide, 
then spreading to include parts of the east Thursday and especially 
Friday. Another back door cold front may drop southward through the 
eastern plains Friday night and Saturday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A moderately strong ridge of high pressure will build over 
California and Nevada Monday, before migrating gradually eastward 
over Arizona later in the week and across New Mexico in the coming 
weekend. The ridge will help keep the storm track north of New Mexico
this week, but a couple back door cold fronts will sag into the
eastern plains: one Monday night and Tuesday, and the other one
Friday night and Saturday. Except for some cooling with the cold
fronts, high temperatures will generally be above normal this week,
especially during the latter half of the work week when near record
and record high temperatures are expected in some areas. Readings 
should peak on Friday around 14 to 22 degrees above normal.

Very dry air in place today will become even drier on Monday as a 
lee trough and somewhat stronger flow aloft induce breezy to windy 
downslope flow east of the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains. 
This could result in fire weather concerns along the I-40 corridor 
Monday afternoon. The cold front Monday night should allow humidities
to increase on Tuesday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions are in place due to low dewpoints, and humidity 
has plummeted to 20 percent or less over the entire forecast area 
today. Winds have turned lighter, as the flow aloft has relaxed and 
turned more west northwest, and temperatures have risen a couple to 
a few degrees above yesterday's readings. 

Monday still appears to be problematic due to increasing winds near 
and just downwind of the central mountain chain. The jet stream will 
arch over the far eastern Pacific and northwestern states before 
diving southeastward into NM on Monday and Monday night. Embedded 
perturbations will also ride through this northwest flow toward NM, 
and the increased gradient aloft will combine with a lee side 
surface trough to yield gusty winds, primarily over the central 
mountain chain eastward to the east central high plains of NM. In 
addition, rising temperatures and critically low humidity will be 
present. It still appears that the spatial area impacted by the 
critical winds and critically low RH Monday afternoon would 
represent a minority of eastern FWZ107 and western FWZ108, however 
when added together, there is still a fair amount of spatial 
coverage of critical conditions for a long duration. Therefore, a 
Fire Weather Watch will be hoisted this afternoon. Outside of the 
central mountain chain and the east central plains, the breezes will 
generally be light to moderate. Ventilation will improve Monday, but 
still be poor in many valleys and sheltered locations. 

In the wake of the passing of the strongest jet core aloft and its 
associated perturbation, a cold front will slide southward into NM 
Monday night. Gusty conditions will accompany the front through 
Tuesday morning, but will settle by the afternoon with expansive 
areas of poor smoke dispersion/ventilation. This front will set 
temperatures back several degrees in the eastern zones going into 
Tuesday, but daytime highs will remain above average area-wide 
Tuesday.  

As the anomalously stout upper ridge of high pressure builds over 
the Baja, temperatures will stay above average Wednesday through 
Friday, possibly with record-breaking highs. The winds will stay 
very light with poor ventilation plaguing most of NM, and 
precipitation will completely avoid the state.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST Monday through Monday evening for 
the following zones... NMZ107-108.

&&

$$