645 FXUS65 KABQ 200534 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1034 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions with just bands of high cirrus clouds through the next 24 hours. Stronger winds will impact the mountains and adjacent highlands of central New Mexico Monday afternoon with potential mountain wave activity. Gusts around 40kt will be common in these areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION...832 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017... .UPDATE... A quick update to lower a few temperatures overnight, mainly in valley locations like Farmington, the Albuquerque area and Roswell. Zones out shortly. && .PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017... .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week keeping the weather dry. A surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies will induce breezy to windy conditions east of the central mountains Monday with fire weather concerns. The warming trend that began this afternoon will continue through the work week, except for brief cooling behind a back door cold front in the east Tuesday afternoon and night. Some near record and record high temperatures will be possible starting Wednesday west of the continental divide, then spreading to include parts of the east Thursday and especially Friday. Another back door cold front may drop southward through the eastern plains Friday night and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... A moderately strong ridge of high pressure will build over California and Nevada Monday, before migrating gradually eastward over Arizona later in the week and across New Mexico in the coming weekend. The ridge will help keep the storm track north of New Mexico this week, but a couple back door cold fronts will sag into the eastern plains: one Monday night and Tuesday, and the other one Friday night and Saturday. Except for some cooling with the cold fronts, high temperatures will generally be above normal this week, especially during the latter half of the work week when near record and record high temperatures are expected in some areas. Readings should peak on Friday around 14 to 22 degrees above normal. Very dry air in place today will become even drier on Monday as a lee trough and somewhat stronger flow aloft induce breezy to windy downslope flow east of the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains. This could result in fire weather concerns along the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon. The cold front Monday night should allow humidities to increase on Tuesday. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry conditions are in place due to low dewpoints, and humidity has plummeted to 20 percent or less over the entire forecast area today. Winds have turned lighter, as the flow aloft has relaxed and turned more west northwest, and temperatures have risen a couple to a few degrees above yesterday's readings. Monday still appears to be problematic due to increasing winds near and just downwind of the central mountain chain. The jet stream will arch over the far eastern Pacific and northwestern states before diving southeastward into NM on Monday and Monday night. Embedded perturbations will also ride through this northwest flow toward NM, and the increased gradient aloft will combine with a lee side surface trough to yield gusty winds, primarily over the central mountain chain eastward to the east central high plains of NM. In addition, rising temperatures and critically low humidity will be present. It still appears that the spatial area impacted by the critical winds and critically low RH Monday afternoon would represent a minority of eastern FWZ107 and western FWZ108, however when added together, there is still a fair amount of spatial coverage of critical conditions for a long duration. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch will be hoisted this afternoon. Outside of the central mountain chain and the east central plains, the breezes will generally be light to moderate. Ventilation will improve Monday, but still be poor in many valleys and sheltered locations. In the wake of the passing of the strongest jet core aloft and its associated perturbation, a cold front will slide southward into NM Monday night. Gusty conditions will accompany the front through Tuesday morning, but will settle by the afternoon with expansive areas of poor smoke dispersion/ventilation. This front will set temperatures back several degrees in the eastern zones going into Tuesday, but daytime highs will remain above average area-wide Tuesday. As the anomalously stout upper ridge of high pressure builds over the Baja, temperatures will stay above average Wednesday through Friday, possibly with record-breaking highs. The winds will stay very light with poor ventilation plaguing most of NM, and precipitation will completely avoid the state. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MST Monday through Monday evening for the following zones... NMZ107-108. && $$