472 
FXUS64 KCRP 200905
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
405 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Modest WAA regime early this morning in aiding in development of
isolated showers across the Coastal Plains. Llvl wind fields are 
are prog to veer to a more southerly direction this 
morning...with drier air just above the surface spreading 
northward at that time. Once that occurs...the ongoing showers 
should begin to dissipate with llvl cloud cover eventually mixing 
out this morning. Some lingering llvl moisture may persist along 
the W Gulf and into the Victoria area where a more persistent 
chance of a shower may exist. 

Axis of slightly deeper moisture is prog to develop along the
coast late tonight which should result in renewed shower
development for the Coastal Counties northward to the Victoria
area....especially where any moisture convergence bands can setup.
Showers should end during the day Saturday across the Coastal 
Plains as the H85 to H7 wind profile veers more southwesterly.
Chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will continue
into the afternoon for the NE CWA where greater instability and a
more conducive wind profile (for precip) will exist. 

H85 temps are prog to warm to around 17/18 C today across the 
region (and even warmer on Saturday). With thinning cloud cover 
and southerly flow...these warmer temps aloft should be able to 
mix down to the sfc...resulting in greater max temps than the past
couple of days.

Regarding coastal flooding...tidal levels may approach 2 ft above
MSL with today's major high tide cycle. But with wind fields prog
to become more SSE than ESE...I have decided to hold off on a 
Coastal Flood Advisory at this time as the veering wind should 
begin to aid in negating greater wave runup.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

A strong short wave trough will be diving southeast through the 
southern plains Saturday night. The associated cold front will be 
pushing southward through Texas Saturday night and be near the 
northern counties of the forecast area by 12Z Sunday. Moisture axis 
will be over the Gulf waters in advance of the front along with 
moisture pooling along the boundary with models indicating PWAT 
values around 1.7 inches. Scattered convection will be possible over 
the Gulf Saturday night along with scattered convection moving into 
the northern counties as the front approaches. Chance for rain will 
be higher in a brief window Sunday morning as the cold front pushes 
through the area. Will continue to show likely PoPs northeast to 
slight chance PoPs far west Sunday morning. Cooler and drier air 
will quickly move into the region by late afternoon. SCA conditions 
will exist over the Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday behind the 
front. The short wave trough could develop into an upper low over 
the Mississippi/Alabama Monday. Another strong upper trough will dig 
south through the central plains Monday night into Tuesday with a 
deep trough forming over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. Another 
surge in high pressure will arrive Tuesday afternoon with winds 
increasing again over the coastal waters to SCA levels. Surface high 
pressure area will settle into the region Wednesday night. Mild 
temperatures will be in store for the work week with the coolest 
readings on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  72  89  74  89  /  10  20  20  20  40 
Victoria          86  72  89  72  85  /  20  20  30  40  60 
Laredo            90  71  92  73  87  /  10  10  10  10  20 
Alice             90  70  91  72  91  /  10  10  10  10  30 
Rockport          85  76  87  76  86  /  10  30  30  30  60 
Cotulla           89  70  92  71  86  /  10  10  10  20  30 
Kingsville        91  72  91  73  92  /  10  10  10  20  30 
Navy Corpus       87  77  88  76  88  /  10  20  30  30  40 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM