472 FXUS64 KCRP 200905 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 405 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... Modest WAA regime early this morning in aiding in development of isolated showers across the Coastal Plains. Llvl wind fields are are prog to veer to a more southerly direction this morning...with drier air just above the surface spreading northward at that time. Once that occurs...the ongoing showers should begin to dissipate with llvl cloud cover eventually mixing out this morning. Some lingering llvl moisture may persist along the W Gulf and into the Victoria area where a more persistent chance of a shower may exist. Axis of slightly deeper moisture is prog to develop along the coast late tonight which should result in renewed shower development for the Coastal Counties northward to the Victoria area....especially where any moisture convergence bands can setup. Showers should end during the day Saturday across the Coastal Plains as the H85 to H7 wind profile veers more southwesterly. Chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will continue into the afternoon for the NE CWA where greater instability and a more conducive wind profile (for precip) will exist. H85 temps are prog to warm to around 17/18 C today across the region (and even warmer on Saturday). With thinning cloud cover and southerly flow...these warmer temps aloft should be able to mix down to the sfc...resulting in greater max temps than the past couple of days. Regarding coastal flooding...tidal levels may approach 2 ft above MSL with today's major high tide cycle. But with wind fields prog to become more SSE than ESE...I have decided to hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory at this time as the veering wind should begin to aid in negating greater wave runup. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)... A strong short wave trough will be diving southeast through the southern plains Saturday night. The associated cold front will be pushing southward through Texas Saturday night and be near the northern counties of the forecast area by 12Z Sunday. Moisture axis will be over the Gulf waters in advance of the front along with moisture pooling along the boundary with models indicating PWAT values around 1.7 inches. Scattered convection will be possible over the Gulf Saturday night along with scattered convection moving into the northern counties as the front approaches. Chance for rain will be higher in a brief window Sunday morning as the cold front pushes through the area. Will continue to show likely PoPs northeast to slight chance PoPs far west Sunday morning. Cooler and drier air will quickly move into the region by late afternoon. SCA conditions will exist over the Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday behind the front. The short wave trough could develop into an upper low over the Mississippi/Alabama Monday. Another strong upper trough will dig south through the central plains Monday night into Tuesday with a deep trough forming over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. Another surge in high pressure will arrive Tuesday afternoon with winds increasing again over the coastal waters to SCA levels. Surface high pressure area will settle into the region Wednesday night. Mild temperatures will be in store for the work week with the coolest readings on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 72 89 74 89 / 10 20 20 20 40 Victoria 86 72 89 72 85 / 20 20 30 40 60 Laredo 90 71 92 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20 Alice 90 70 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 30 Rockport 85 76 87 76 86 / 10 30 30 30 60 Cotulla 89 70 92 71 86 / 10 10 10 20 30 Kingsville 91 72 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 20 30 Navy Corpus 87 77 88 76 88 / 10 20 30 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ RH/79...SHORT TERM TMT/89...LONG TERM