830 
FXUS63 KLBF 102053
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
353 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

H5 hand analysis this morning had high pressure anchored 
off the coast of the Carolinas. Ridging extended to the north 
northeast into the northern Atlantic. West of the high, broad ssw 
flow extended from the southern Plains north to New England. West of 
this flow, a closed low was present over central Kansas with 50 
meter HT falls noted over eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. 
West of the low, ht rises of 50 to 130 meters were reported. and 
this was in association with a low amplitude ridge which extended 
from central Colorado into eastern Ontario and the Western Dakotas. 
West of the ridge, a deepening trough of low pressure was located 
along the Pacific coast of western Canada with a trough extending 
south into western portions of Oregon and Washington state. Ht. 
falls in association with this feature ranged from 50 to 130 
meters with the greatest falls located from western Washington 
north into southwestern British Columbia. AT the surface, high 
pressure had built into the northern plains behind the exiting 
upper level system. After a cold start in the 20s this morning, 
under clear skies, readings had made it this afternoon into the 
50s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A quiet short term is forecast is in store for north central 
Nebraska for the next couple days. High pressure will remain over 
the central US keeping conditions dry. For tonight, temperatures 
will drop back into the upper 20s to mid 30s. With clear skies and 
calm winds, there is a chance of some frost development. However, 
with much of the forecast area already experiencing significant 
frost and temperatures in the 20s in the previous night, have opted 
to end all frost/freeze headlines. 

Wednesday continues to be dry with winds increasing throughout the 
day. Sustained winds will increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 
20 mph by the afternoon. Temperatures will also begin a warming 
trend that will continue throughout the remainder of the week. High 
temperatures will increase into the mid 60s to low 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM 
CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Wednesday night through Friday: The upper air pattern 
will continue to be west southwesterly in nature Wednesday night 
into Thursday. This will develop a lee side trough of low pressure 
Wednesday night along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. The 
latest models are hinting at winds remaining mixed throughout the 
night which will give a boost to overnight lows. Wind potential is 
highest across the sandhills and north central Nebraska and this is 
where lows will be the warmest Weds night. Winds will be lighter 
over sw Nebraska and have opted for lows in the mid to upper 30s. On 
Thursday, a lead shortwave will lift across SW Canada, this will 
force a cold front into the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM, 
frontal timing is such that it shouldn't have a huge impact on 
afternoon temps. With this in mind, held onto the inherited forecast 
highs in the upper 60s in the NW to upper 70s in the south. Mid 
level frontogenesis will increase Thursday night across northwestern 
Nebraska, down stream of an approaching trough of low pressure 
aloft. Additional support for pcpn, will come from an approaching 
H300 jet streak. Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 
30s in the far northwest, so the threat for snow overnight in the 
northwest is minimal. Friday will be dry and cooler as easterly 
winds behind the front will be dominant. Highs will be in the upper 
50s to lower 60s. With the post frontal airmass being fairly dry, 
clouds and precipitation should hold off until Friday 
night/Saturday. 

Friday night through Tuesday: The main upper level trough of low 
pressure will track across the Rockies Saturday, crossing the plains 
Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase Saturday ahead 
of this feature. ATTM the favored areas for precipitation are over 
Kansas into sern Nebraska INVOF the surface front where low level 
moisture pools along this feature, and further north across South 
Dakota where post frontal mid level frontogenesis is maximized. For 
southwestern Nebraska, precipitation appears light for now, however 
with cloud cover expected, highs will struggle to reach the middle 
50s. As mentioned earlier, the upper level trough will track through 
the forecast area Saturday night. Almost immediately, strong 
subsidence on the back side of the trough axis will clear out skies 
late Saturday night. Sunday will be dry and cool with highs in the 
upper 50s. Warmer air will push back into the region Monday and 
Tuesday with highs reaching back into the 60s to lower 70s.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Quiet aviation concerns are expected over the next couple days.
High pressure will remain firmly in place across the central US
resulting in VFR conditions across north central Nebraska. Calm
winds will continue through the remainder of Tuesday and Tuesday
night before increasing slightly on Wednesday morning. Winds will
still remain under 15 knots at both KVTN and KLBF.  

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik