830 FXUS63 KLBF 102053 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 353 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 H5 hand analysis this morning had high pressure anchored off the coast of the Carolinas. Ridging extended to the north northeast into the northern Atlantic. West of the high, broad ssw flow extended from the southern Plains north to New England. West of this flow, a closed low was present over central Kansas with 50 meter HT falls noted over eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. West of the low, ht rises of 50 to 130 meters were reported. and this was in association with a low amplitude ridge which extended from central Colorado into eastern Ontario and the Western Dakotas. West of the ridge, a deepening trough of low pressure was located along the Pacific coast of western Canada with a trough extending south into western portions of Oregon and Washington state. Ht. falls in association with this feature ranged from 50 to 130 meters with the greatest falls located from western Washington north into southwestern British Columbia. AT the surface, high pressure had built into the northern plains behind the exiting upper level system. After a cold start in the 20s this morning, under clear skies, readings had made it this afternoon into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 A quiet short term is forecast is in store for north central Nebraska for the next couple days. High pressure will remain over the central US keeping conditions dry. For tonight, temperatures will drop back into the upper 20s to mid 30s. With clear skies and calm winds, there is a chance of some frost development. However, with much of the forecast area already experiencing significant frost and temperatures in the 20s in the previous night, have opted to end all frost/freeze headlines. Wednesday continues to be dry with winds increasing throughout the day. Sustained winds will increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph by the afternoon. Temperatures will also begin a warming trend that will continue throughout the remainder of the week. High temperatures will increase into the mid 60s to low 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Wednesday night through Friday: The upper air pattern will continue to be west southwesterly in nature Wednesday night into Thursday. This will develop a lee side trough of low pressure Wednesday night along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. The latest models are hinting at winds remaining mixed throughout the night which will give a boost to overnight lows. Wind potential is highest across the sandhills and north central Nebraska and this is where lows will be the warmest Weds night. Winds will be lighter over sw Nebraska and have opted for lows in the mid to upper 30s. On Thursday, a lead shortwave will lift across SW Canada, this will force a cold front into the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM, frontal timing is such that it shouldn't have a huge impact on afternoon temps. With this in mind, held onto the inherited forecast highs in the upper 60s in the NW to upper 70s in the south. Mid level frontogenesis will increase Thursday night across northwestern Nebraska, down stream of an approaching trough of low pressure aloft. Additional support for pcpn, will come from an approaching H300 jet streak. Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s in the far northwest, so the threat for snow overnight in the northwest is minimal. Friday will be dry and cooler as easterly winds behind the front will be dominant. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the post frontal airmass being fairly dry, clouds and precipitation should hold off until Friday night/Saturday. Friday night through Tuesday: The main upper level trough of low pressure will track across the Rockies Saturday, crossing the plains Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase Saturday ahead of this feature. ATTM the favored areas for precipitation are over Kansas into sern Nebraska INVOF the surface front where low level moisture pools along this feature, and further north across South Dakota where post frontal mid level frontogenesis is maximized. For southwestern Nebraska, precipitation appears light for now, however with cloud cover expected, highs will struggle to reach the middle 50s. As mentioned earlier, the upper level trough will track through the forecast area Saturday night. Almost immediately, strong subsidence on the back side of the trough axis will clear out skies late Saturday night. Sunday will be dry and cool with highs in the upper 50s. Warmer air will push back into the region Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching back into the 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Quiet aviation concerns are expected over the next couple days. High pressure will remain firmly in place across the central US resulting in VFR conditions across north central Nebraska. Calm winds will continue through the remainder of Tuesday and Tuesday night before increasing slightly on Wednesday morning. Winds will still remain under 15 knots at both KVTN and KLBF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Kulik