061 
FXUS61 KRLX 260657
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
257 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and mild under high pressure through Monday. Unsettled 
weather returns by the middle of next week with an upper level 
trough.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

High pressure will remain over the area. However, models are 
indicating that there may be enough low level moisture in the 
mountains to form a couple of afternoon showers. Will continue with 
some slight chance/chance pops in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

Sunday looks to be mainly dry, though weak low level 
convergence across the central mountains should be enough for 
an isolated shower threat. More of the same Monday though there
should be better coverage across the central mountains as
easterly flow becomes established.

Models are much more amplified with the upper level pattern
across the Ohio Valley Tuesday than last night's runs. The
culprit lies with a piece of energy that closes off into an
upper low just west of the area. Meanwhile, low pressure begins
to organize and strengthen along the southeast coast and track
northeast. This all spells an uptick in chances of
showers/storms Tuesday with the mountains under the influence of
moist easterly flow from the coastal low, and the remainder of
the area within upper level diffluence with increasing mid level
lift. Pops were tweaked upward from what Superblend initialized
with, giving nod to the higher mos values from the global
models. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

The Tuesday system de-amplifies as it lifts northeast away from
the area Wednesday. Models still leave enough of a weakness in 
the flow for mainly diurnally driven scattered showers/storms 
and mainly across the north and in the mountains. Drier air 
works in for Thursday though cirrus from Harvey will manage to 
get pulled into the area for filtered sun. The cirrus canopy 
shifts south a bit for Friday while a weak front across OH and 
northern WV may provide enough lift for isolated shower or 
storm.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

Dense river valley fog can be expected early this morning. 

After the fog burns off, expected a VFR cumulus field. Can not rule 
out a couple of showers in the mountains this afternoon that could 
cause some brief restrictions. 

VFR conditions can then be expected Saturday evening. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.
    
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of river valley fog 
forming overnight and then dissipating Saturday morning, could 
vary. MVFR stratus may move into BKW by tomorrow morning. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/26/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR in river valley fog possible Sunday and Monday mornings, and
in IFR will also be possible with low stratus along the eastern
slopes of the mountains Monday through Wednesday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY