061 FXUS61 KRLX 260657 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 257 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and mild under high pressure through Monday. Unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week with an upper level trough. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Saturday... High pressure will remain over the area. However, models are indicating that there may be enough low level moisture in the mountains to form a couple of afternoon showers. Will continue with some slight chance/chance pops in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Saturday... Sunday looks to be mainly dry, though weak low level convergence across the central mountains should be enough for an isolated shower threat. More of the same Monday though there should be better coverage across the central mountains as easterly flow becomes established. Models are much more amplified with the upper level pattern across the Ohio Valley Tuesday than last night's runs. The culprit lies with a piece of energy that closes off into an upper low just west of the area. Meanwhile, low pressure begins to organize and strengthen along the southeast coast and track northeast. This all spells an uptick in chances of showers/storms Tuesday with the mountains under the influence of moist easterly flow from the coastal low, and the remainder of the area within upper level diffluence with increasing mid level lift. Pops were tweaked upward from what Superblend initialized with, giving nod to the higher mos values from the global models. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 AM Saturday... The Tuesday system de-amplifies as it lifts northeast away from the area Wednesday. Models still leave enough of a weakness in the flow for mainly diurnally driven scattered showers/storms and mainly across the north and in the mountains. Drier air works in for Thursday though cirrus from Harvey will manage to get pulled into the area for filtered sun. The cirrus canopy shifts south a bit for Friday while a weak front across OH and northern WV may provide enough lift for isolated shower or storm. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 120 AM Saturday... Dense river valley fog can be expected early this morning. After the fog burns off, expected a VFR cumulus field. Can not rule out a couple of showers in the mountains this afternoon that could cause some brief restrictions. VFR conditions can then be expected Saturday evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of river valley fog forming overnight and then dissipating Saturday morning, could vary. MVFR stratus may move into BKW by tomorrow morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR in river valley fog possible Sunday and Monday mornings, and in IFR will also be possible with low stratus along the eastern slopes of the mountains Monday through Wednesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY