273 
FXUS62 KMHX 281056
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
656 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move
offshore Friday and move offshore late Saturday. High pressure
will build behind the front Sunday into the middle of next week. 


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 650 AM Friday...Showers with a couple of embedded
thunderstorms occurring over the far northern CWA and have
adjusted PoPs to account for some continuing activity through
the morning. A cold front will slowly approach the region from 
the northwest today as a mid-level shortwave rotates across 
eastern NC later this evening into tonight. Weak low-level 
shear and high instability will lead to a threat of some strong 
to locally severe storms later in the afternoon into this 
evening, particular over the northern tier of the CWA where the 
instability will be maximized with forecast surface-based CAPE 
values exceeding 3000 J/kg and LI's around -6 to -7. Latest 
high-resolution models indicate the severe threat will be short-
lived with convection weakening over our northern CWA this 
evening. SPC has lowered our area to the "Marginal Threat" of 
severe today and tonight. High temperatures today will rise to 
the mid to upper 80s over most locations with a few lower 90s in
the normally warmer inland counties. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Friday...While instability wanes a bit
tonight...strong mid-level shortwave and frontal forcing will
lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms tonight.
Some heavy downpours will be likely, but threat of severe
weather diminishes after midnight. Will continue previous
forecast of likely PoPs area-wide. With cloud-cover and
precipitation, expect uniform low temperatures in the mid 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...An area of low pressure will slowly move
off the VA coast with the trailing cold front pushing across
eastern NC through the day Saturday. The front will stall
offshore with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it
into early next week while high pressure builds in from the
northwest through the middle of next week.

Saturday through Tuesday...An upper low is progged to be 
positioned over the mid-Atlantic states with sfc low pressure 
over VA early Saturday. The low will slowly push off the VA 
coast with the trailing cold front pushing across the region 
through the day Saturday. Moist SW flow with sufficient 
instability and shear remains ahead of the front to bring a 
threat of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across
the area, especially eastern sections where greater diurnal 
heating will occur before fropa. 

Confidence in the forecast remains low Sunday through Tuesday 
as models are struggling to grasp the evolution of the strong 
upper trough/cut-off low as it moves across the mid-Atlantic 
states and off the coast. More progressive guidance opens the
low into a sharp trough that pushes across eastern NC Sunday and
quickly lifting the sfc low away from the area while less
progressive guidance keeps the upper low over eastern VA/NC 
through Monday before lifting out Tuesday with several areas of 
sfc low pressure lifting along the stalled front offshore
Sunday through Tuesday. The former solution brings a few 
showers with strong N to NE winds along the coast Sunday but 
otherwise has dry conditions and light winds through Tuesday. 
The latter solution bring greater coverage of showers Sunday 
with a few showers possibly lingering along the coast Monday 
into Tuesday with moderate to strong NE flow across the region 
persisting into Tuesday. High Saturday expected to be in the mid
80s. Latest guidance brings much below normal temps for Sunday 
with highs in the upper 70s to around 80, then a gradual warming
back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows expected in the 60s
inland to lower 70s coast.

Wednesday and Thursday...High pressure will be the dominant
feature for Wednesday with dry conditions expected. A robust 
shortwave digs across the Midwest Thursday with increasing 
southern stream flow across the Southeast which may produce a 
few showers across the area late Thursday, however there remains
some timing differences among the models. Temps expected to be
near normal in the upper 80s to around 90 inland to mid 80s
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 655 AM Friday...Widespread mid and high debris cloudiness
has kept most fog/stratus at bay overnight, although KOAJ did 
report a short period of MVFR fog and stratus. Conditions should
remain in the VFR range through today, even with scattered 
showers/tstms during the late afternoon hours causing briefly
lower ceilings and vsbys, especially at KPGV. Deeper moisture 
associated with cold front will lead to periods of IFR ceilings 
after 06z tonight which is also depicted in the latest numerical
guidance.


Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...A cold front will cross rtes Saturday with
periods of sub-VFR conditions expected in showers/thunderstorms.
Pred VFR conditions expected Saturday night through Tuesday but
cannot rule out a few showers across rtes, especially coastal
sections, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. 

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Friday...Tight gradient between offshore high 
pressure and approaching front will lead to continued S/SW 
winds at 15-20 knots over the waters today and tonight. Per 
latest wave models, area of enhanced waves moves up the coast by
tonight and current timing to Small Craft Advisories, beginning
near or just after 00Z tonight looks good with no changes 
required. Seas will build to as high as 6-7 feet later tonight 
with 15-25 knot winds. 

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Poor boating conditions expected this
weekend as an area of low pressure moves off the VA coast and
trailing cold front pushes through the waters Saturday. Strong
SW winds around 15-25 kt with higher gusts continues Saturday 
ahead of the cold front, then becomes NW around 15-20 kt behind
the front and shifts to N 15-25 kt by Sunday. Seas around 5-8 
ft south of Oregon inlet and 3-5 ft north Saturday subside a bit
Saturday night but build back to 5-9 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet
and 3-6 ft south by Sunday. Confidence remains low with how
quickly conditions improve Monday into Tuesday as there is a
large spread among the models with the placement of the front
offshore. Stronger guidance keeps the front stalled closer the
the coast with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it
keeping NE winds around 15-25 kt and seas up to 4-7 ft across 
the waters into Tuesday while weaker guidance pushes the front
well offshore with conditions dropping below SCA Monday. 


 &&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday 
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday 
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC 
NEAR TERM...CTC 
SHORT TERM...CTC 
LONG TERM...SK 
AVIATION...CTC/SK 
MARINE...CTC/SK