273 FXUS62 KMHX 281056 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 656 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move offshore Friday and move offshore late Saturday. High pressure will build behind the front Sunday into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 650 AM Friday...Showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms occurring over the far northern CWA and have adjusted PoPs to account for some continuing activity through the morning. A cold front will slowly approach the region from the northwest today as a mid-level shortwave rotates across eastern NC later this evening into tonight. Weak low-level shear and high instability will lead to a threat of some strong to locally severe storms later in the afternoon into this evening, particular over the northern tier of the CWA where the instability will be maximized with forecast surface-based CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg and LI's around -6 to -7. Latest high-resolution models indicate the severe threat will be short- lived with convection weakening over our northern CWA this evening. SPC has lowered our area to the "Marginal Threat" of severe today and tonight. High temperatures today will rise to the mid to upper 80s over most locations with a few lower 90s in the normally warmer inland counties. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM Friday...While instability wanes a bit tonight...strong mid-level shortwave and frontal forcing will lead to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms tonight. Some heavy downpours will be likely, but threat of severe weather diminishes after midnight. Will continue previous forecast of likely PoPs area-wide. With cloud-cover and precipitation, expect uniform low temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday...An area of low pressure will slowly move off the VA coast with the trailing cold front pushing across eastern NC through the day Saturday. The front will stall offshore with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it into early next week while high pressure builds in from the northwest through the middle of next week. Saturday through Tuesday...An upper low is progged to be positioned over the mid-Atlantic states with sfc low pressure over VA early Saturday. The low will slowly push off the VA coast with the trailing cold front pushing across the region through the day Saturday. Moist SW flow with sufficient instability and shear remains ahead of the front to bring a threat of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms across the area, especially eastern sections where greater diurnal heating will occur before fropa. Confidence in the forecast remains low Sunday through Tuesday as models are struggling to grasp the evolution of the strong upper trough/cut-off low as it moves across the mid-Atlantic states and off the coast. More progressive guidance opens the low into a sharp trough that pushes across eastern NC Sunday and quickly lifting the sfc low away from the area while less progressive guidance keeps the upper low over eastern VA/NC through Monday before lifting out Tuesday with several areas of sfc low pressure lifting along the stalled front offshore Sunday through Tuesday. The former solution brings a few showers with strong N to NE winds along the coast Sunday but otherwise has dry conditions and light winds through Tuesday. The latter solution bring greater coverage of showers Sunday with a few showers possibly lingering along the coast Monday into Tuesday with moderate to strong NE flow across the region persisting into Tuesday. High Saturday expected to be in the mid 80s. Latest guidance brings much below normal temps for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80, then a gradual warming back into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows expected in the 60s inland to lower 70s coast. Wednesday and Thursday...High pressure will be the dominant feature for Wednesday with dry conditions expected. A robust shortwave digs across the Midwest Thursday with increasing southern stream flow across the Southeast which may produce a few showers across the area late Thursday, however there remains some timing differences among the models. Temps expected to be near normal in the upper 80s to around 90 inland to mid 80s coast. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/... As of 655 AM Friday...Widespread mid and high debris cloudiness has kept most fog/stratus at bay overnight, although KOAJ did report a short period of MVFR fog and stratus. Conditions should remain in the VFR range through today, even with scattered showers/tstms during the late afternoon hours causing briefly lower ceilings and vsbys, especially at KPGV. Deeper moisture associated with cold front will lead to periods of IFR ceilings after 06z tonight which is also depicted in the latest numerical guidance. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Friday...A cold front will cross rtes Saturday with periods of sub-VFR conditions expected in showers/thunderstorms. Pred VFR conditions expected Saturday night through Tuesday but cannot rule out a few showers across rtes, especially coastal sections, which may bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 7 AM Friday...Tight gradient between offshore high pressure and approaching front will lead to continued S/SW winds at 15-20 knots over the waters today and tonight. Per latest wave models, area of enhanced waves moves up the coast by tonight and current timing to Small Craft Advisories, beginning near or just after 00Z tonight looks good with no changes required. Seas will build to as high as 6-7 feet later tonight with 15-25 knot winds. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Friday...Poor boating conditions expected this weekend as an area of low pressure moves off the VA coast and trailing cold front pushes through the waters Saturday. Strong SW winds around 15-25 kt with higher gusts continues Saturday ahead of the cold front, then becomes NW around 15-20 kt behind the front and shifts to N 15-25 kt by Sunday. Seas around 5-8 ft south of Oregon inlet and 3-5 ft north Saturday subside a bit Saturday night but build back to 5-9 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet and 3-6 ft south by Sunday. Confidence remains low with how quickly conditions improve Monday into Tuesday as there is a large spread among the models with the placement of the front offshore. Stronger guidance keeps the front stalled closer the the coast with several areas of low pressure lifting NE along it keeping NE winds around 15-25 kt and seas up to 4-7 ft across the waters into Tuesday while weaker guidance pushes the front well offshore with conditions dropping below SCA Monday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...CTC/SK MARINE...CTC/SK