273 
FXUS62 KTAE 011738
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.AVIATION...

[Through 18z Sunday] Convective coverage across the area is
expected to remain below average for this time of year and 
diminish after sunset. VFR conditions are expected to prevail 
through most of the night with a brief period of restrictions 
possible around dawn around ECP and TLH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1035 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Surface and upper level ridging will build across the Florida 
Peninsula and GOMEX. Forecast soundings show some mid level drying 
over the region today. PoPs have been trimmed back to slight chance 
(20%) for our Florida and lower tier GA zones. Went with chance (30-
40%) for SE AL and the remainder of our GA zones where models show a 
bit more available moisture. With less convection and cloud cover, 
temps will reach the lower to mid 90s inland with upper 80s along 
the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Ridging aloft will prevail through the short term, with a trough
and associated cold front draped through the Middle Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys. Westerly flow along the base of the trough
and along the northern edge of the east-west oriented ridge over
the Southeast will result in lee troughing that is forecast to
spread into south Georgia. Convection through the period will be
driven by outflow or possibly MCS' originating along the front
and moving southeast, initiation along the base of the lee trough,
and the seabreezes. PoPs will be highest on Monday as moisture
gradually increases from north to south as a result of a shortwave
swinging through the Midwest and Northeast through Sunday. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s on Sunday, and the
lower 90s on Monday as a result of the higher coverage of storms.
Heat indices will be + or - a couple degrees of 100.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A similar pattern will prevail through much of the extended range
forecast, with the subtropical ridge nosing into the Southeast and
a persistent trough along and north of the Tennessee Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Expect afternoon seabreeze convection and the
possibility of evening/overnight convection should storms
generated by the trough move southeast into the region. By the end
of the week, the trough is forecast to amplify a bit which would
favor higher than normal PoPs heading into the weekend. Expect
afternoon highs to be seasonable, in the lower to middle 90s.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail over the next several days.
Showers and thunderstorms would be most likely late in the night
through the early morning hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread river, urban, or rural flooding is not expected through
next week as showers and thunderstorms will be of a scattered
nature. Isolated slow moving or stronger storms could result in
localized flooding or cause brief rises on our more sensitive
rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  94  75  92  74 /  10  30  30  50  20 
Panama City   78  88  77  88  77 /  10  30  20  30  20 
Dothan        74  91  73  92  74 /  30  40  30  40  30 
Albany        75  93  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  40  30 
Valdosta      73  94  74  92  73 /  20  40  40  50  30 
Cross City    75  94  74  92  74 /  10  30  20  40  20 
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Harrigan 
FIRE WEATHER...Barry 
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan