273 FXUS62 KTAE 011738 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 138 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017 .AVIATION... [Through 18z Sunday] Convective coverage across the area is expected to remain below average for this time of year and diminish after sunset. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the night with a brief period of restrictions possible around dawn around ECP and TLH. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1035 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Surface and upper level ridging will build across the Florida Peninsula and GOMEX. Forecast soundings show some mid level drying over the region today. PoPs have been trimmed back to slight chance (20%) for our Florida and lower tier GA zones. Went with chance (30- 40%) for SE AL and the remainder of our GA zones where models show a bit more available moisture. With less convection and cloud cover, temps will reach the lower to mid 90s inland with upper 80s along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... Ridging aloft will prevail through the short term, with a trough and associated cold front draped through the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Westerly flow along the base of the trough and along the northern edge of the east-west oriented ridge over the Southeast will result in lee troughing that is forecast to spread into south Georgia. Convection through the period will be driven by outflow or possibly MCS' originating along the front and moving southeast, initiation along the base of the lee trough, and the seabreezes. PoPs will be highest on Monday as moisture gradually increases from north to south as a result of a shortwave swinging through the Midwest and Northeast through Sunday. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s on Sunday, and the lower 90s on Monday as a result of the higher coverage of storms. Heat indices will be + or - a couple degrees of 100. .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... A similar pattern will prevail through much of the extended range forecast, with the subtropical ridge nosing into the Southeast and a persistent trough along and north of the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Expect afternoon seabreeze convection and the possibility of evening/overnight convection should storms generated by the trough move southeast into the region. By the end of the week, the trough is forecast to amplify a bit which would favor higher than normal PoPs heading into the weekend. Expect afternoon highs to be seasonable, in the lower to middle 90s. .MARINE... Light winds and low seas will prevail over the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms would be most likely late in the night through the early morning hours. .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... Widespread river, urban, or rural flooding is not expected through next week as showers and thunderstorms will be of a scattered nature. Isolated slow moving or stronger storms could result in localized flooding or cause brief rises on our more sensitive rivers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 94 75 92 74 / 10 30 30 50 20 Panama City 78 88 77 88 77 / 10 30 20 30 20 Dothan 74 91 73 92 74 / 30 40 30 40 30 Albany 75 93 74 92 74 / 20 40 30 40 30 Valdosta 73 94 74 92 73 / 20 40 40 50 30 Cross City 75 94 74 92 74 / 10 30 20 40 20 Apalachicola 76 90 77 89 77 / 10 20 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barry SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM...Harrigan AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Harrigan FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...Harrigan