737 
FXUS61 KRLX 051726
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low brings unsettled and cooler weather through the
weekend. Dry weather for early next week with dry northwesterly
flow. Another wet system for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 AM Friday...

Sent an update to remove all PoPs during the morning and early
afternoon hours per latest radar, high resolution and synoptic
models. Allowed convection to develop during the late afternoon
and evening. Adjusted sky populating some clearing across most
parts of WV per latest VIS satellite images. 

As of 520 AM Friday... 
Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and PoP grids based on
latest sat IR imagery and radar trends.

As of 350 AM Friday...

Mid level dry slot will across the forecast area this morning
with some clearing of mid and high level clouds, along with
diminished precipitation activity. Strong baroclinic zone in 
combination with dynamic lift expected to generate a band of 
moderate to heavy showers across the eastern mountains of West
Virginia later today and into the overnight hours. Carried pops
about as far west as the Ohio River with higher pops east of 
that line. Short term, hi-res models in fairly good agreement 
that categorical pops will carry well past sunset. After a short
respite shower activity this morning, have adjusted pops upward
for the overnight hours. For max/min temps, used general model 
blend with inherited forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Moist and cool cyclonic circulation around an upper low, 
centered to our northeast, will continue to affect our weather 
through at least Saturday night. Look for cloudy and showery 
weather with below normal temperatures through Saturday night. 
The best chance for showers will be over northern and eastern 
WV, especially in the mountains where upslope northwesterly flow
will aid the showers. Enough cold air aloft will even bring 
some wet snow to the higher elevations of the northern mountains
later Saturday night. Models are trending toward faster 
improvement from the west on Sunday as Canadian high pressure 
builds in behind the departing upper low, which will be ending 
showers in the mountains by Sunday afternoon and bring clearing 
in the west. Temperatures will be below normal this period,
especially Sunday night under clear skies and light winds where
temperatures will likely drop into the 30s. The potential for
frost early Monday morning depends mainly on how light the 
winds will be, so too early to jump on this.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Models are not in the greatest agreement this period as our 
weather by the middle of next week will be determined by how the
next in a series of upper lows develops over the Ohio Valley. 
In the meantime, Canadian high pressure will slowly slide east 
across the area through early next week with dry weather, and 
only a slow warming trend despite abundant sunshine. Model 
consensus as such has the next system approaching from the west 
by Thursday with wet weather returning and temperatures near 
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

Radar, high resolution and synoptic models all suggest showers
and possible a storm will begin to develop during the late 
afternoon hours. Therefore, removed thunder from the forecast 
per lack on instability. 

May see some convective development after 21-00Z as daytime 
heating helps kick off cloud and showers, especially across 
elevated terrain. Brief IFR conditions can occur along the
heaviest showers. 

Southeast winds in tight gradients relax through this morning,
with some gusts along the ridgetops. Will see return of wind 
gusts this afternoon as low continues to weaken, and a 
secondary surface low approaches, bringing another round of MVFR
and IFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing Cig and Visby values will vary, and
IFR may become more widespread.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ