737 FXUS61 KRLX 051726 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 126 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low brings unsettled and cooler weather through the weekend. Dry weather for early next week with dry northwesterly flow. Another wet system for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 AM Friday... Sent an update to remove all PoPs during the morning and early afternoon hours per latest radar, high resolution and synoptic models. Allowed convection to develop during the late afternoon and evening. Adjusted sky populating some clearing across most parts of WV per latest VIS satellite images. As of 520 AM Friday... Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and PoP grids based on latest sat IR imagery and radar trends. As of 350 AM Friday... Mid level dry slot will across the forecast area this morning with some clearing of mid and high level clouds, along with diminished precipitation activity. Strong baroclinic zone in combination with dynamic lift expected to generate a band of moderate to heavy showers across the eastern mountains of West Virginia later today and into the overnight hours. Carried pops about as far west as the Ohio River with higher pops east of that line. Short term, hi-res models in fairly good agreement that categorical pops will carry well past sunset. After a short respite shower activity this morning, have adjusted pops upward for the overnight hours. For max/min temps, used general model blend with inherited forecasts. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Friday... Moist and cool cyclonic circulation around an upper low, centered to our northeast, will continue to affect our weather through at least Saturday night. Look for cloudy and showery weather with below normal temperatures through Saturday night. The best chance for showers will be over northern and eastern WV, especially in the mountains where upslope northwesterly flow will aid the showers. Enough cold air aloft will even bring some wet snow to the higher elevations of the northern mountains later Saturday night. Models are trending toward faster improvement from the west on Sunday as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the departing upper low, which will be ending showers in the mountains by Sunday afternoon and bring clearing in the west. Temperatures will be below normal this period, especially Sunday night under clear skies and light winds where temperatures will likely drop into the 30s. The potential for frost early Monday morning depends mainly on how light the winds will be, so too early to jump on this. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Models are not in the greatest agreement this period as our weather by the middle of next week will be determined by how the next in a series of upper lows develops over the Ohio Valley. In the meantime, Canadian high pressure will slowly slide east across the area through early next week with dry weather, and only a slow warming trend despite abundant sunshine. Model consensus as such has the next system approaching from the west by Thursday with wet weather returning and temperatures near normal. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 PM Friday... Radar, high resolution and synoptic models all suggest showers and possible a storm will begin to develop during the late afternoon hours. Therefore, removed thunder from the forecast per lack on instability. May see some convective development after 21-00Z as daytime heating helps kick off cloud and showers, especially across elevated terrain. Brief IFR conditions can occur along the heaviest showers. Southeast winds in tight gradients relax through this morning, with some gusts along the ridgetops. Will see return of wind gusts this afternoon as low continues to weaken, and a secondary surface low approaches, bringing another round of MVFR and IFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing Cig and Visby values will vary, and IFR may become more widespread. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H L L H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ