704 
FXUS61 KBGM 040527
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
127 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide off the east coast today. A storm
system will track into the Ohio Valley this evening, bringing
rain and cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 pm update...
Very little change. Winds have dropped under 5 kts at the ASOSs.
Temperatures across the twin tiers have fallen into the 30s
already. On track for the mins of 28 to 37. High clouds coming
in now but thin to start and thickening late tonight. This
should not stop temperatures from their fall. 

630 pm update...
Skies are clearing quickly and should stay that way most of the
evening. Temperatures staying up with some surface mixing as
winds are 10 to 15 mph for now. At sunset, winds should drop to
become light and temperatures will fall quickly through the 40s
this evening. Added frost to the weather grids. 

245 pm...As of mid afternoon, skies clearing as a shortwave
departs to the east and high pressure begins to move in from the
west. Any lingering spotty showers over eastern areas will end
within the next hour or so. 

Heading into tonight, high pressure settles over the area with
mainly clear skies through most of the night along with light
winds. This will allow for good radiational cooling with lows
generally in the mid 30s. As a result, we have issued a Frost
Advisory for Lackawanna, Luzerne Counties in PA and Yates,
Seneca, southern Cayuga, and Onondaga Counties in NY.
Currently, these are the only zones where our Spring
Frost/Freeze program has started. 

For Thursday, clouds will quickly increase from west to east
ahead of the next approaching storm system. This will be a deep
closed low over the SE US with a surface low that will track
from western Tennessee slowly north into Kentucky through the
day. North of this system's warm front, warm advection precip
will break out over western PA / NY during the afternoon. The
heaviest and steadiest precip should stay to our west through
the day since this is where the stronger forcing will be but we
do bring in increasing chances for showers in the afternoon over
western parts of the forecast area through the Finger Lakes into
the Lake Plain. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s to around 
60s.


For Thursday night, 997 mb low will remain situated near 
Kentucky with a large high east of Nova Scotia. The heaviest and
steadiest rain with the low will remain over the midwest
extending into southern Ontario in accordance with the strongest
forcing. However expect more showery precip to continue over the
area in moist SE flow in warm advection north of warm front. 
Through this period, rainfall amounts over the area should not 
be very heavy. Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday...Surface low pressure around 992 mb will move from the 
Tennessee Valley into western Pennsylvania by late day. Mid
level short waves, moisture plume and jet dynamics look best
through early afternoon and primarily I81 east. Will continue 
with categorical POPS across the entire region and mention 
chc/slight chc for thunder in northeast Pennsylvania where 
models indicate surface and mid level instability. Total 
rainfall should range from around one inch in the far southeast 
to a half inch in the Finger Lakes region, thus no hydro 
concerns are expected. High temperatures will range in the 
middle 50s to around 60.

Friday night/Saturday...Surface low becomes vertically stacked
over the region during this period. Will continue with likely
POPS Friday night and Saturday. Airmass will gradually cool 
during the period as flow becomes westerly. Lows Friday night 
will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s with highs on 
Saturday in the 50s. This is a high POP low QPF forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will be dominated by a cutoff low in the
northeast with temperatures much cooler than normal and
unsettled conditions.

Will advertise high chance/low likely POPS through the weekend.
Saturday night and Sunday night, temperatures drop low enough
for some mixed rain/snow showers although little to no
accumulations is expected. Highs Sunday and Monday will range
from the middle 40s to lower 50s, with lows Saturday night
through Monday night in the middle to upper 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly warmer as the airmass
modifies but conditions will remain unsettled as upper level
feature may continue to wobble over the northeast. Temperatures
throughout the period will run 5 to 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with the
exception of MVFR ceilings after 3z Friday at KELM and possibly
KITH.

Light southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 knots this
afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 knots are forecast.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Restrictions expected with 
rain from a slow-moving low pressure system.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions likely in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ044-047.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>018.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP