704 FXUS61 KBGM 040527 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 127 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide off the east coast today. A storm system will track into the Ohio Valley this evening, bringing rain and cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 10 pm update... Very little change. Winds have dropped under 5 kts at the ASOSs. Temperatures across the twin tiers have fallen into the 30s already. On track for the mins of 28 to 37. High clouds coming in now but thin to start and thickening late tonight. This should not stop temperatures from their fall. 630 pm update... Skies are clearing quickly and should stay that way most of the evening. Temperatures staying up with some surface mixing as winds are 10 to 15 mph for now. At sunset, winds should drop to become light and temperatures will fall quickly through the 40s this evening. Added frost to the weather grids. 245 pm...As of mid afternoon, skies clearing as a shortwave departs to the east and high pressure begins to move in from the west. Any lingering spotty showers over eastern areas will end within the next hour or so. Heading into tonight, high pressure settles over the area with mainly clear skies through most of the night along with light winds. This will allow for good radiational cooling with lows generally in the mid 30s. As a result, we have issued a Frost Advisory for Lackawanna, Luzerne Counties in PA and Yates, Seneca, southern Cayuga, and Onondaga Counties in NY. Currently, these are the only zones where our Spring Frost/Freeze program has started. For Thursday, clouds will quickly increase from west to east ahead of the next approaching storm system. This will be a deep closed low over the SE US with a surface low that will track from western Tennessee slowly north into Kentucky through the day. North of this system's warm front, warm advection precip will break out over western PA / NY during the afternoon. The heaviest and steadiest precip should stay to our west through the day since this is where the stronger forcing will be but we do bring in increasing chances for showers in the afternoon over western parts of the forecast area through the Finger Lakes into the Lake Plain. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s to around 60s. For Thursday night, 997 mb low will remain situated near Kentucky with a large high east of Nova Scotia. The heaviest and steadiest rain with the low will remain over the midwest extending into southern Ontario in accordance with the strongest forcing. However expect more showery precip to continue over the area in moist SE flow in warm advection north of warm front. Through this period, rainfall amounts over the area should not be very heavy. Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday...Surface low pressure around 992 mb will move from the Tennessee Valley into western Pennsylvania by late day. Mid level short waves, moisture plume and jet dynamics look best through early afternoon and primarily I81 east. Will continue with categorical POPS across the entire region and mention chc/slight chc for thunder in northeast Pennsylvania where models indicate surface and mid level instability. Total rainfall should range from around one inch in the far southeast to a half inch in the Finger Lakes region, thus no hydro concerns are expected. High temperatures will range in the middle 50s to around 60. Friday night/Saturday...Surface low becomes vertically stacked over the region during this period. Will continue with likely POPS Friday night and Saturday. Airmass will gradually cool during the period as flow becomes westerly. Lows Friday night will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s with highs on Saturday in the 50s. This is a high POP low QPF forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended period will be dominated by a cutoff low in the northeast with temperatures much cooler than normal and unsettled conditions. Will advertise high chance/low likely POPS through the weekend. Saturday night and Sunday night, temperatures drop low enough for some mixed rain/snow showers although little to no accumulations is expected. Highs Sunday and Monday will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s, with lows Saturday night through Monday night in the middle to upper 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly warmer as the airmass modifies but conditions will remain unsettled as upper level feature may continue to wobble over the northeast. Temperatures throughout the period will run 5 to 15 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with the exception of MVFR ceilings after 3z Friday at KELM and possibly KITH. Light southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 knots this afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 knots are forecast. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...Restrictions expected with rain from a slow-moving low pressure system. Saturday through Monday...Restrictions likely in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ044-047. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ015>018. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...DJP