845 
FXUS64 KLIX 160513
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Main concerns will be timing out convection due to convergent 
maritime bands to focus showers and thunderstorms. Best approach
will be to indicate VC due to uncertainty of exact placement of
streets, generally between 16Z and 22Z. Marine layer cloud decks
to impart MVFR conditions overnight, potentially some fog where
rain occurred earlier. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017/ 

SHORT TERM...

High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast with a ridge 
extending into Gulf has maintained a fairly steady southeast flow
across the region with inlux of moisture and precipitable water 
in the 1.5 inch range per model sounding. Weak mid level trough 
and daytime heating has promoted the developement of scattered 
showers across area. Actvitiy should diminish around sunset as 
lower atmosphere cools and becomes stable. The ridge pattern 
should persist for the next few days with scattered to locally 
numerous showers developing with daytime heating. Best moisture 
profile should remain over LA, so MS coastal areas will have lower
rain chances. Some fog development may occurr in inland area 
around sunrise as boundary layer winds decouple promoting 
radiation. With steady SE flow persistenting off of the Gulf 
water, a fairly consistent temperature regime expected with lows 
generally in the 60s and high around 80.

LONG TERM...

By Wednesday, the low to mid ridge from surface to 700mb, builds 
westward ino the northeast Gulf with deeper moisture profile 
shifting westward. As moisture diminishes rain chances should 
decrease with slight chance showers over the western portion of 
our forecast area. Temperatures should remain slightly above 
normal. Maximum temperature may bump up a degree or two due to 
lack of influence of clouds and rain showers. GFS and ECMWF both 
on track for strong mid level trough into the Plains on late 
Friday and Saturday with associated cold front affecting area next
weekend. Will need to monitor trends to regarding timing, with 
some of the convection potentially strong. 21

.AVIATION... 

Latest radar coverage revealed isolated showers around KBTR but
east of KHDC, KMCB, KNEW and KMSY this afternoon. Will insert a 
tempo for showers at KBTR and KHDC through 22z. Ceilings will remain 
in and out through Sunday. SCT-BKN025-060 this afternoon and BKN070 
late tonight with a possible TEMPO grouping of OVC006 at KMCB as 
well.

Model guidance revealed a slight decrease with wind speeds but 
remaining above 3 knots. With these ceilings, FG should not be an 
issue overnight. However, will add a tempo MVFR due to fog at KMCB
and KHUM. If KBTR receives rain this afternoon, later forecast 
may add this restriction to the forecast at 00 or 06z taf issuance. 
Thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, so will maintain 
showers at western taf sites and only VCSH for the rest of the taf 
sites this afternoon for now. Winds will remain breezy from the SE 
at about 10-15kt with gusts up to 20 kts at times during the day and 
decreased at night. 18

MARINE... 
Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knots again this afternoon 
and should start to ease early Sunday morning. Some easing may occur 
before 7am Sunday morning. Therefore, will maintain small craft 
exercise caution headlines through 4am Sunday morning. The pressure 
field will relax by Sunday. Surface high will weaken and remain 
relaxed through next week with wind speeds around 10 knots. 18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  79  62  82 /  20  60  20  40 
BTR  64  82  62  82 /  20  60  20  40 
ASD  65  80  64  82 /  20  40  20  20 
MSY  68  81  66  81 /  20  40  20  30 
GPT  68  79  67  81 /  20  30  10  10 
PQL  64  79  63  83 /  10  20  10  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$