845 FXUS64 KLIX 160513 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017 .AVIATION... Main concerns will be timing out convection due to convergent maritime bands to focus showers and thunderstorms. Best approach will be to indicate VC due to uncertainty of exact placement of streets, generally between 16Z and 22Z. Marine layer cloud decks to impart MVFR conditions overnight, potentially some fog where rain occurred earlier. 24/RR && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017/ SHORT TERM... High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast with a ridge extending into Gulf has maintained a fairly steady southeast flow across the region with inlux of moisture and precipitable water in the 1.5 inch range per model sounding. Weak mid level trough and daytime heating has promoted the developement of scattered showers across area. Actvitiy should diminish around sunset as lower atmosphere cools and becomes stable. The ridge pattern should persist for the next few days with scattered to locally numerous showers developing with daytime heating. Best moisture profile should remain over LA, so MS coastal areas will have lower rain chances. Some fog development may occurr in inland area around sunrise as boundary layer winds decouple promoting radiation. With steady SE flow persistenting off of the Gulf water, a fairly consistent temperature regime expected with lows generally in the 60s and high around 80. LONG TERM... By Wednesday, the low to mid ridge from surface to 700mb, builds westward ino the northeast Gulf with deeper moisture profile shifting westward. As moisture diminishes rain chances should decrease with slight chance showers over the western portion of our forecast area. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal. Maximum temperature may bump up a degree or two due to lack of influence of clouds and rain showers. GFS and ECMWF both on track for strong mid level trough into the Plains on late Friday and Saturday with associated cold front affecting area next weekend. Will need to monitor trends to regarding timing, with some of the convection potentially strong. 21 .AVIATION... Latest radar coverage revealed isolated showers around KBTR but east of KHDC, KMCB, KNEW and KMSY this afternoon. Will insert a tempo for showers at KBTR and KHDC through 22z. Ceilings will remain in and out through Sunday. SCT-BKN025-060 this afternoon and BKN070 late tonight with a possible TEMPO grouping of OVC006 at KMCB as well. Model guidance revealed a slight decrease with wind speeds but remaining above 3 knots. With these ceilings, FG should not be an issue overnight. However, will add a tempo MVFR due to fog at KMCB and KHUM. If KBTR receives rain this afternoon, later forecast may add this restriction to the forecast at 00 or 06z taf issuance. Thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, so will maintain showers at western taf sites and only VCSH for the rest of the taf sites this afternoon for now. Winds will remain breezy from the SE at about 10-15kt with gusts up to 20 kts at times during the day and decreased at night. 18 MARINE... Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knots again this afternoon and should start to ease early Sunday morning. Some easing may occur before 7am Sunday morning. Therefore, will maintain small craft exercise caution headlines through 4am Sunday morning. The pressure field will relax by Sunday. Surface high will weaken and remain relaxed through next week with wind speeds around 10 knots. 18 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 79 62 82 / 20 60 20 40 BTR 64 82 62 82 / 20 60 20 40 ASD 65 80 64 82 / 20 40 20 20 MSY 68 81 66 81 / 20 40 20 30 GPT 68 79 67 81 / 20 30 10 10 PQL 64 79 63 83 / 10 20 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$