467 
FXUS61 KBGM 071828
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
228 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering light snow and rain showers into tonight as a storm
moves out of the area. Minor slushy snow accumulations will 
occur mainly at higher elevations today into tonight. Rivers 
will continue to run high, and in many cases are above flood 
stage. High pressure Sunday will bring mild dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
2 pm update... 

Snow and rain continues across the area. Gusty northwest winds 
will continue into Saturday. Clouds will also continue into 
Saturday then become mostly sunny late morning and afternoon. 
Late this afternoon with mid levels cooling all precipitation
will change to snow. Snow accumulations mostly at the higher 
elevations much like this mornings reports. An inch or two
possible of snow mostly in central NY. Stay in the deep synoptic
moisture into the evening then left with shallow lake moisture
and a marginal fetch and temperature difference. Fetch is from
330 degrees so no Lake Huron and short dwell time. This is good
south of the Finger Lakes. Marginal temperatures with no
dendrite zone in the saturated shallow layer could cause some
freezing drizzle/drizzle. For now with the light amounts have
left precipitation as just snow. Saturday morning with mixing 
any snow showers will quickly end. High pressure slowly builds
in with dry sinking air. Ridging aloft as current storm moves
off the east coast. Lows in the upper 20s tonight followed by 
low 40s in northeast to around 50 Elmira to Wilkes-Barre. 

Saturday night quiet and dry. High pressure moves over the area
with warm air advection and ridging aloft. Lows in the upper 20s
and lower 30s. Mainly clear skies and light winds. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
High pressure builds in and controls the weather from Saturday 
night into Monday morning. Surface high moves to the east by 
Sunday morning while the upper ridge builds allowing a southwest
flow to develop. Temperatures on Sunday will recover nicely 
reaching into the 60s in many places with 50s confined to the 
higher elevations in the Catskills. Dry and mild conditions 
continue into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 AM update...

Upper ridge slides slowly east next week eventually allowing a
cold front over the midwest to approach the area. Southwest flow
will keep the area warm and dry into Tuesday at least, before
scattered thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the front.
GFS and Euro differ in that the Euro develops a second low 
behind the front resulting in unsettled weather lingering into
Thursday, while the GFS just moves the front on by followed by
high pressure. Will continue to linger some showers into
Thursday, but with low pops to cover the Euro solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM Update...

Widespread restrictions continue as the region deals with the 
back side of a large low pressure system. Most sites MVFR with
BGM/ITH IFR. Most of the precipitation will be light snow
showers into this evening. Late tonight slow improvement at all
but ITH/BGM. ITH/BGM will have cigs around 800 ft with some 
snow still off Cayuga Lake late tonight. Faster improvement to 
VFR Saturday morning at all sites.

northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts into this
evening. Some diminishing late but similar speeds on Saturday. 

OUTLOOK...

Saturday afternoon through Monday night...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Chance of showers and associated restrictions, with 
thunder also possible.

Wednesday...chance of lingering showers and restrictions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
4 AM update...
Rivers continue to respond to the widespread 1 to 2 inches of 
rain that fell in the last 24 hours, and many are either 
already in flood or will be shortly. Conklin has reached 
moderate flood stage, which will soon be followed by Vestal; 
remaining flood warnings are all for achieving minor level flood 
stages. Showers will continue today through tonight but will be
light. Despite the ongoing flooding of the main stem rivers, 
with heavier rainfall gone, the threat for flash flooding as 
well as for quickly responding small streams/creeks has waned
since additional rainfall rates will be light. Thus the Areal 
Flood Watch has been dropped for most of the area, since 
additional flooding is not expected beyond what is occurring 
along main stem rivers and Flood Warnings have already been
issued accordingly. Flood Watch continues for Finger Lakes to 
Mohawk Valley, even though additional showers will be light, 
since responses to rainfall will be slower to evolve (especially
for Finger Lakes system) and thus impacts are still in the 
process of being realized. Check our web site for details on 
which points are flooding and timing/magnitude of crests.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM/TAC
LONG TERM...DGM/KAH
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...