467 FXUS61 KBGM 071828 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 228 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering light snow and rain showers into tonight as a storm moves out of the area. Minor slushy snow accumulations will occur mainly at higher elevations today into tonight. Rivers will continue to run high, and in many cases are above flood stage. High pressure Sunday will bring mild dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 2 pm update... Snow and rain continues across the area. Gusty northwest winds will continue into Saturday. Clouds will also continue into Saturday then become mostly sunny late morning and afternoon. Late this afternoon with mid levels cooling all precipitation will change to snow. Snow accumulations mostly at the higher elevations much like this mornings reports. An inch or two possible of snow mostly in central NY. Stay in the deep synoptic moisture into the evening then left with shallow lake moisture and a marginal fetch and temperature difference. Fetch is from 330 degrees so no Lake Huron and short dwell time. This is good south of the Finger Lakes. Marginal temperatures with no dendrite zone in the saturated shallow layer could cause some freezing drizzle/drizzle. For now with the light amounts have left precipitation as just snow. Saturday morning with mixing any snow showers will quickly end. High pressure slowly builds in with dry sinking air. Ridging aloft as current storm moves off the east coast. Lows in the upper 20s tonight followed by low 40s in northeast to around 50 Elmira to Wilkes-Barre. Saturday night quiet and dry. High pressure moves over the area with warm air advection and ridging aloft. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Mainly clear skies and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds in and controls the weather from Saturday night into Monday morning. Surface high moves to the east by Sunday morning while the upper ridge builds allowing a southwest flow to develop. Temperatures on Sunday will recover nicely reaching into the 60s in many places with 50s confined to the higher elevations in the Catskills. Dry and mild conditions continue into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 AM update... Upper ridge slides slowly east next week eventually allowing a cold front over the midwest to approach the area. Southwest flow will keep the area warm and dry into Tuesday at least, before scattered thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the front. GFS and Euro differ in that the Euro develops a second low behind the front resulting in unsettled weather lingering into Thursday, while the GFS just moves the front on by followed by high pressure. Will continue to linger some showers into Thursday, but with low pops to cover the Euro solution. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 PM Update... Widespread restrictions continue as the region deals with the back side of a large low pressure system. Most sites MVFR with BGM/ITH IFR. Most of the precipitation will be light snow showers into this evening. Late tonight slow improvement at all but ITH/BGM. ITH/BGM will have cigs around 800 ft with some snow still off Cayuga Lake late tonight. Faster improvement to VFR Saturday morning at all sites. northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts into this evening. Some diminishing late but similar speeds on Saturday. OUTLOOK... Saturday afternoon through Monday night...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Chance of showers and associated restrictions, with thunder also possible. Wednesday...chance of lingering showers and restrictions. && .HYDROLOGY... 4 AM update... Rivers continue to respond to the widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain that fell in the last 24 hours, and many are either already in flood or will be shortly. Conklin has reached moderate flood stage, which will soon be followed by Vestal; remaining flood warnings are all for achieving minor level flood stages. Showers will continue today through tonight but will be light. Despite the ongoing flooding of the main stem rivers, with heavier rainfall gone, the threat for flash flooding as well as for quickly responding small streams/creeks has waned since additional rainfall rates will be light. Thus the Areal Flood Watch has been dropped for most of the area, since additional flooding is not expected beyond what is occurring along main stem rivers and Flood Warnings have already been issued accordingly. Flood Watch continues for Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley, even though additional showers will be light, since responses to rainfall will be slower to evolve (especially for Finger Lakes system) and thus impacts are still in the process of being realized. Check our web site for details on which points are flooding and timing/magnitude of crests. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...DGM/TAC LONG TERM...DGM/KAH AVIATION...TAC HYDROLOGY...