573 
FXUS64 KFWD 170829
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
329 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A relatively quiet forecast will be the story for the next few
days with temperatures remaining above normal. Although a warm 
sector airmass will remain in place, a lack of lift and a strong 
cap will limit rain and thunderstorm chances for most of the area.
The exception is for our far northern areas near the Red River 
where a couple of cold fronts will stall, possibly providing 
enough support for a few showers or an isolated storm. Changes are
expected in the 6-10 day time frame which may result in chances 
for some strong or severe storms in the second half of next week.

A swath of low stratus is in the process of overspreading the
forecast area this morning as strong southerly flow continues to
pump low-level moisture into the region. The breezy southerly 
surface winds are compliments of a 40+ kt low level jet which has
continued to mix down to the surface since the boundary layer has
not decoupled. Where low-level moisture is the deepest across our
far eastern zones, some patchy drizzle will be possible through 
the early morning hours. Clouds should become scattered this 
afternoon (or even clear across our northwest areas) which will 
allow temperatures to warm quickly. A deepening surface low in the
TX Panhandle will sink southward later today and an attendant 
cold front will slowly approach the Red River. Given the clearing 
skies and pre-frontal warming, some upper 80s appear possible 
around the Graham/Breckenridge/Cisco area this afternoon. The cold
front should stall near the Red River late this evening and may 
be capable of producing a few rain showers across our far 
north/northeast counties. However, a very strong capping inversion
will be impervious to the meager lift this front will provide and
the likely result is that little/no showers or storms will 
develop in the forecast area. Have trimmed back PoPs and left only
a very low-end mention of precip in these areas.

Upper ridging will occur over the weekend keeping temperatures 
10-15 degrees above normal as we remain in a warm advection 
regime. More of the same can be expected with morning stratus 
followed by afternoon clearing each day. The stalled cold front 
along the Red River will lift back northward on Saturday/Sunday in
advance of a weak disturbance that will traverse the Plains on 
Monday. With little/no lift available and a strong cap, we should 
remain mostly precipitation-free during this time despite being 
positioned in the warm sector with ample moisture.

The aforementioned disturbance will drag a second cold front down
to the Red River late Tuesday. This front may stall a bit farther
south than its predecessor, possibly making it as far south as
I-20. There will be limited lift once again other than the front
itself and a fairly strong cap should be in place. As a result,
there may be enough lift immediately along the front for a few 
showers/storms, but expect coverage to be pretty low. Have 
maintained the low-end PoPs in the forecast late Tuesday and 
Wednesday across the far northern portions of the forecast area.

Around mid to late week, some bigger changes should be arriving 
as the large-scale pattern becomes more active. A deeper trough
should be digging into the West Coast on Wednesday and begin
approaching the Plains on Thursday. There is still quite a
discrepancy among models on how far south the through or cutoff 
low will be located, as should be expected almost a week into the
forecast. The GFS has persistently been the more aggressive 
model, generating a cutoff low across KS and northern OK while the
ECMWF has held on to a more progressive northern track. The GEFS 
members also remain split among these two possible solutions. 
Regardless, we'll need to keep an eye on this trough as it could 
bring the potential for some strong or severe storms to the 
forecast area next Thursday or Friday. The farther south that the 
upper low tracks, generally the higher the severe weather 
potential will be. The pattern may remain active behind this 
system with another deep low possibly affecting the Southern 
Plains again a few days later.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1131 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/
A surprisingly nice VFR evening will deteriorate as we head into
the overnight hours and a 50 KT low level jet becomes established.
A stratus layer will quickly develop and overspread pretty much
all of North and Central Texas during the next several hours. 
Some evidence of this can already be seen just south of the 
forecast area on low cloud/fog satellite imagery. MVFR conditions
are expected to develop at all locations during the 07Z to 09Z 
timeframe, and remain in place through much of the day Friday. 
Clouds may scatter again late Friday afternoon. A front will stall
just north of the Red River Friday through Saturday, so winds 
will remain southerly through the end of the forecast period. The 
atmosphere should remain too capped for any decent chance of 
thunderstorms.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  64  81  62  83 /  10  10  10   5   5 
Waco                80  62  80  59  81 /  10  10  10   5   5 
Paris               75  61  76  59  80 /  10  20  20  10  10 
Denton              80  63  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10   5 
McKinney            78  62  78  60  80 /  10  20  10   5   5 
Dallas              81  65  80  62  83 /  10  10  10   5   5 
Terrell             78  62  79  60  82 /  10  10  10   5   5 
Corsicana           78  62  79  61  81 /  10  10  10   5   5 
Temple              81  62  80  60  80 /  10  10   5   5  10 
Mineral Wells       85  61  82  59  85 /  10  10  10   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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