573 FXUS64 KFWD 170829 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 329 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .DISCUSSION... A relatively quiet forecast will be the story for the next few days with temperatures remaining above normal. Although a warm sector airmass will remain in place, a lack of lift and a strong cap will limit rain and thunderstorm chances for most of the area. The exception is for our far northern areas near the Red River where a couple of cold fronts will stall, possibly providing enough support for a few showers or an isolated storm. Changes are expected in the 6-10 day time frame which may result in chances for some strong or severe storms in the second half of next week. A swath of low stratus is in the process of overspreading the forecast area this morning as strong southerly flow continues to pump low-level moisture into the region. The breezy southerly surface winds are compliments of a 40+ kt low level jet which has continued to mix down to the surface since the boundary layer has not decoupled. Where low-level moisture is the deepest across our far eastern zones, some patchy drizzle will be possible through the early morning hours. Clouds should become scattered this afternoon (or even clear across our northwest areas) which will allow temperatures to warm quickly. A deepening surface low in the TX Panhandle will sink southward later today and an attendant cold front will slowly approach the Red River. Given the clearing skies and pre-frontal warming, some upper 80s appear possible around the Graham/Breckenridge/Cisco area this afternoon. The cold front should stall near the Red River late this evening and may be capable of producing a few rain showers across our far north/northeast counties. However, a very strong capping inversion will be impervious to the meager lift this front will provide and the likely result is that little/no showers or storms will develop in the forecast area. Have trimmed back PoPs and left only a very low-end mention of precip in these areas. Upper ridging will occur over the weekend keeping temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal as we remain in a warm advection regime. More of the same can be expected with morning stratus followed by afternoon clearing each day. The stalled cold front along the Red River will lift back northward on Saturday/Sunday in advance of a weak disturbance that will traverse the Plains on Monday. With little/no lift available and a strong cap, we should remain mostly precipitation-free during this time despite being positioned in the warm sector with ample moisture. The aforementioned disturbance will drag a second cold front down to the Red River late Tuesday. This front may stall a bit farther south than its predecessor, possibly making it as far south as I-20. There will be limited lift once again other than the front itself and a fairly strong cap should be in place. As a result, there may be enough lift immediately along the front for a few showers/storms, but expect coverage to be pretty low. Have maintained the low-end PoPs in the forecast late Tuesday and Wednesday across the far northern portions of the forecast area. Around mid to late week, some bigger changes should be arriving as the large-scale pattern becomes more active. A deeper trough should be digging into the West Coast on Wednesday and begin approaching the Plains on Thursday. There is still quite a discrepancy among models on how far south the through or cutoff low will be located, as should be expected almost a week into the forecast. The GFS has persistently been the more aggressive model, generating a cutoff low across KS and northern OK while the ECMWF has held on to a more progressive northern track. The GEFS members also remain split among these two possible solutions. Regardless, we'll need to keep an eye on this trough as it could bring the potential for some strong or severe storms to the forecast area next Thursday or Friday. The farther south that the upper low tracks, generally the higher the severe weather potential will be. The pattern may remain active behind this system with another deep low possibly affecting the Southern Plains again a few days later. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1131 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/ A surprisingly nice VFR evening will deteriorate as we head into the overnight hours and a 50 KT low level jet becomes established. A stratus layer will quickly develop and overspread pretty much all of North and Central Texas during the next several hours. Some evidence of this can already be seen just south of the forecast area on low cloud/fog satellite imagery. MVFR conditions are expected to develop at all locations during the 07Z to 09Z timeframe, and remain in place through much of the day Friday. Clouds may scatter again late Friday afternoon. A front will stall just north of the Red River Friday through Saturday, so winds will remain southerly through the end of the forecast period. The atmosphere should remain too capped for any decent chance of thunderstorms. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 64 81 62 83 / 10 10 10 5 5 Waco 80 62 80 59 81 / 10 10 10 5 5 Paris 75 61 76 59 80 / 10 20 20 10 10 Denton 80 63 80 61 83 / 10 10 10 10 5 McKinney 78 62 78 60 80 / 10 20 10 5 5 Dallas 81 65 80 62 83 / 10 10 10 5 5 Terrell 78 62 79 60 82 / 10 10 10 5 5 Corsicana 78 62 79 61 81 / 10 10 10 5 5 Temple 81 62 80 60 80 / 10 10 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 85 61 82 59 85 / 10 10 10 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 92/26