604 
FXUS62 KMLB 141903
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Current-Tonight...Gradually improving conditions behind latest cold 
front as stubborn low clouds slowly erode this afternoon. Breezy 
WNW/NW winds will decrease this evening but still remain elevated 
through the night at around 10 mph. Even while surface high pressure 
over the central CONUS builds southward toward the GOMEX, yet 
another strong reinforcing cold frontal boundary will slide to near 
our northern zones by sunrise Wed morning. 

Mins tonight still forecast in the 40s under clear skies. A few 
normally cooler locations in north Lake/inland Volusia counties 
could realize U30s. Due to the steady WNW-NW wind, lowest wind chill 
readings (near sunrise Wed morning) will fall into the M30s north of 
I 4 with U30s/L40s southward across the remainder of ECFL making for 
a cool late night/early Wed morning.

Wed...Another reinforcing cold frontal boundary will slide down the 
peninsula and adjacent coastal waters during the morning/afternoon. 
Expansive surface high pressure centered over the central CONUS 
continues to build southward into the GOMEX and FL peninsula behind 
the latest front. WNW winds will veer to NW with speeds around 15 
mph and gusty once again. Much drier/cooler air will filter 
southward through the day. Afternoon maxes will range from the U50s 
Volusia/N. Brevard counties to M60s across St. Lucie/Martin 
counties. Heightened fire sensitivity as min RH values plummet to L-
M20s over much of the interior and L-M30s near the east coast. Skies 
will be mainly sunny.

Wed night-Thu...Coldest night of the late season event as high
settles in proximity to the area. 30s are forecast south to Lake 
Okeechobee inland with M-U30s west of the Intracoastal waterway 
south to at least Indian River Co. Forecast will depend on how 
light winds become overnight and lower than forecast winds will 
bring more areas of frost and near freezing temps to some points 
further south into lake and Rural Orange co. The Freeze Watch for 
colder sport of Volusia and Lake are thus subject to expansion if 
required on Wed. Thu under mostly sunny skies temps will warm into
the M-U60s with light winds becoming onshore. 

Friday-Monday...(from prev disc) High pres ridge will drop SE 
into central FL thru week's end as the next storm system dvlps 
over the Nrn Plains and pushes acrs the Great Lakes and New 
England region thru Sat night, then into the NW Atlc/Canadian 
Maritimes early next week. Light onshore flow on Fri bcmg variable
on Sat as the ridge passes overhead...temps gradually recovering 
to climo avg by Sat aftn (Maxes in the U70s, mins in the M50s). 

The storm system will pull a new cold front thru central FL over the 
weekend...GFS/ECMWF guidance suggests a Sat night/Sun mrng 
timeframe. Fropa should be dry given the initial low PWat values, 
plus the fact the parent low will be too far to the north to provide 
any meaningful dynamic support to the srn extension of its frontal 
trof. Minimal cool down as the front steadily weakens during its 
march south...neither GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance indicates much more 
than a 5F deg cool down Post frontal temps will drop arnd 5F degs 
from I-4 northward, which should translate to temps 5-10F blo avg. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR for the next 24 hours with breezy WNW/NW winds. Winds will 
stay elevated tonight before increasing again in the morning 
and afternoon on Wednesday in the wake of another strong 
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...A reinforcing cold front will drop into the 
northern marine legs near daybreak Wed morning. SCA's continue 
overnight areawide. Gusty WNW/NW winds with building seas across the 
coastal waters through the period will make for hazardous small 
craft boating.

Wed...Another strong reinforcing front will slide southward across 
the coastal waters during the morning/afternoon. High pressure will 
then build south and eastward toward the area. This will reinforce 
gusty WNW winds veering them to NW. Seas will continue to build to 8-
11 ft offshore and 6-8 ft near shore. Small craft advisories 
continue areawide into at least late afternoon (20Z/4PM) with 
present configuration, continuing offshore through 03Z/10PM. These 
may need to get extended a bit further out in time as winds continue 
to slowly decrease and seas even slower to subside away from the 
coast.

Thu/Thu Night...(prev disc) Ridge axis will drift slowly acrs the
ern seaboard, allowing winds to veer from a light to gentle N/NW 
breeze to a light to gentle N/NE breeze. Seas 3-5FT nearshore and 
4-6FT offshore, subsiding to 3-4FT areawide. 

Fri/Fri Night...Ridge axis will settle over the W Atlc, then will 
gradually drift into central FL as a new storm system pushes acrs 
the Great Lakes region. Light to gentle NE breeze bcmg E thru the 
day, then bcmg light and variable overnight...from Cape Canaveral 
northward S/SE bcmg W/SW...south of the Cape gentle to moderate E 
breeze bcmg E/NE.

Sat/Sat Night...Storm system will push acrs New England and into the 
NW Atlc, pulling the next cold front through central FL. Timing of 
the frontal passage leaning toward the sunset to dawn. Variable 
winds thru the day...north of Sebastian Inlet light to gentle W/SW 
breeze, south of the Inlet light E/NE breeze bcmg S/SE by sunset. 
Winds will freshen out of the W/NW overnight as the front pushes 
thru central FL...bcmg a moderate to fresh NW breeze by daybreak. 
Seas 2-3FT thru the day, building to 4-5FT offshore north of 
Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wed...Another reinforcing cold front will bring even 
drier/cooler air into ECFL during the day. Min RH values will drop 
to arnd 25pct along and north of the I-4 corridor, 30-35pct to the 
south. Durations of blo 35pct RH will be 6-8hrs. 

Late week...tendency for development of onshore winds Thu will
bring contrast in RH over the coast vice inland. Critical conds
are not forecast, however RH mins in afternoon will fall to the 
M-U20s inland in the afternoon. Fuel moisture still in recovering
stage but becoming dryer. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Low temperature records over the next couple days

LOC  DATE   LO-MIN   LO-MAX  
DAB 15-Mar  32 1993  53 1941 
MCO 15-Mar  33 1932  57 1993 
MLB 15-Mar  34 1993  57 1988 
VRB 15-Mar  36 1993  60 1988 

DAB 16-Mar  34 1988  56 1954 
MCO 16-Mar  30 1932  57 1901 
MLB 16-Mar  39 1988  64 1992 
VRB 16-Mar  35 1988  61 1954 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  57  34  61 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  44  61  36  64 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  45  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0 
VRB  46  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0 
LEE  42  61  33  64 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  42  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  44  61  39  64 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  46  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning 
     for Inland Volusia County-Northern Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to 
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
AVIATION...Combs