604 FXUS62 KMLB 141903 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 303 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 .DISCUSSION... Current-Tonight...Gradually improving conditions behind latest cold front as stubborn low clouds slowly erode this afternoon. Breezy WNW/NW winds will decrease this evening but still remain elevated through the night at around 10 mph. Even while surface high pressure over the central CONUS builds southward toward the GOMEX, yet another strong reinforcing cold frontal boundary will slide to near our northern zones by sunrise Wed morning. Mins tonight still forecast in the 40s under clear skies. A few normally cooler locations in north Lake/inland Volusia counties could realize U30s. Due to the steady WNW-NW wind, lowest wind chill readings (near sunrise Wed morning) will fall into the M30s north of I 4 with U30s/L40s southward across the remainder of ECFL making for a cool late night/early Wed morning. Wed...Another reinforcing cold frontal boundary will slide down the peninsula and adjacent coastal waters during the morning/afternoon. Expansive surface high pressure centered over the central CONUS continues to build southward into the GOMEX and FL peninsula behind the latest front. WNW winds will veer to NW with speeds around 15 mph and gusty once again. Much drier/cooler air will filter southward through the day. Afternoon maxes will range from the U50s Volusia/N. Brevard counties to M60s across St. Lucie/Martin counties. Heightened fire sensitivity as min RH values plummet to L- M20s over much of the interior and L-M30s near the east coast. Skies will be mainly sunny. Wed night-Thu...Coldest night of the late season event as high settles in proximity to the area. 30s are forecast south to Lake Okeechobee inland with M-U30s west of the Intracoastal waterway south to at least Indian River Co. Forecast will depend on how light winds become overnight and lower than forecast winds will bring more areas of frost and near freezing temps to some points further south into lake and Rural Orange co. The Freeze Watch for colder sport of Volusia and Lake are thus subject to expansion if required on Wed. Thu under mostly sunny skies temps will warm into the M-U60s with light winds becoming onshore. Friday-Monday...(from prev disc) High pres ridge will drop SE into central FL thru week's end as the next storm system dvlps over the Nrn Plains and pushes acrs the Great Lakes and New England region thru Sat night, then into the NW Atlc/Canadian Maritimes early next week. Light onshore flow on Fri bcmg variable on Sat as the ridge passes overhead...temps gradually recovering to climo avg by Sat aftn (Maxes in the U70s, mins in the M50s). The storm system will pull a new cold front thru central FL over the weekend...GFS/ECMWF guidance suggests a Sat night/Sun mrng timeframe. Fropa should be dry given the initial low PWat values, plus the fact the parent low will be too far to the north to provide any meaningful dynamic support to the srn extension of its frontal trof. Minimal cool down as the front steadily weakens during its march south...neither GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance indicates much more than a 5F deg cool down Post frontal temps will drop arnd 5F degs from I-4 northward, which should translate to temps 5-10F blo avg. && .AVIATION... VFR for the next 24 hours with breezy WNW/NW winds. Winds will stay elevated tonight before increasing again in the morning and afternoon on Wednesday in the wake of another strong cold front. && .MARINE... Tonight...A reinforcing cold front will drop into the northern marine legs near daybreak Wed morning. SCA's continue overnight areawide. Gusty WNW/NW winds with building seas across the coastal waters through the period will make for hazardous small craft boating. Wed...Another strong reinforcing front will slide southward across the coastal waters during the morning/afternoon. High pressure will then build south and eastward toward the area. This will reinforce gusty WNW winds veering them to NW. Seas will continue to build to 8- 11 ft offshore and 6-8 ft near shore. Small craft advisories continue areawide into at least late afternoon (20Z/4PM) with present configuration, continuing offshore through 03Z/10PM. These may need to get extended a bit further out in time as winds continue to slowly decrease and seas even slower to subside away from the coast. Thu/Thu Night...(prev disc) Ridge axis will drift slowly acrs the ern seaboard, allowing winds to veer from a light to gentle N/NW breeze to a light to gentle N/NE breeze. Seas 3-5FT nearshore and 4-6FT offshore, subsiding to 3-4FT areawide. Fri/Fri Night...Ridge axis will settle over the W Atlc, then will gradually drift into central FL as a new storm system pushes acrs the Great Lakes region. Light to gentle NE breeze bcmg E thru the day, then bcmg light and variable overnight...from Cape Canaveral northward S/SE bcmg W/SW...south of the Cape gentle to moderate E breeze bcmg E/NE. Sat/Sat Night...Storm system will push acrs New England and into the NW Atlc, pulling the next cold front through central FL. Timing of the frontal passage leaning toward the sunset to dawn. Variable winds thru the day...north of Sebastian Inlet light to gentle W/SW breeze, south of the Inlet light E/NE breeze bcmg S/SE by sunset. Winds will freshen out of the W/NW overnight as the front pushes thru central FL...bcmg a moderate to fresh NW breeze by daybreak. Seas 2-3FT thru the day, building to 4-5FT offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wed...Another reinforcing cold front will bring even drier/cooler air into ECFL during the day. Min RH values will drop to arnd 25pct along and north of the I-4 corridor, 30-35pct to the south. Durations of blo 35pct RH will be 6-8hrs. Late week...tendency for development of onshore winds Thu will bring contrast in RH over the coast vice inland. Critical conds are not forecast, however RH mins in afternoon will fall to the M-U20s inland in the afternoon. Fuel moisture still in recovering stage but becoming dryer. && .CLIMATE... Low temperature records over the next couple days LOC DATE LO-MIN LO-MAX DAB 15-Mar 32 1993 53 1941 MCO 15-Mar 33 1932 57 1993 MLB 15-Mar 34 1993 57 1988 VRB 15-Mar 36 1993 60 1988 DAB 16-Mar 34 1988 56 1954 MCO 16-Mar 30 1932 57 1901 MLB 16-Mar 39 1988 64 1992 VRB 16-Mar 35 1988 61 1954 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 41 57 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 44 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 45 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 46 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 42 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 42 59 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 44 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 46 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Inland Volusia County-Northern Lake County. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM....Pendergrast AVIATION...Combs