474 
FXUS62 KMHX 050317
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1017 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through Sunday night, then
move offshore Monday. A cold front will move through Tuesday 
night. High pressure will build into the region behind the front
and linger through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM Sat...Update mainly to capture T/Td and winds 
trends. Latest sfc analysis shows strong 1044mb high pressure 
centered over southern Ontario/Quebec this evening, extending 
into the Mid- Atlantic and SE. Another cold night with below 
normal temps expected, with lows dropping into the mid 20s/low 
30s. Light winds will increase late tonight and early Sunday 
morning as reinforcing high pressure builds in from the north. 
Will continue the SPS for widespread sub-freezing temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sat...High pressure will continue to build over the
area from the north...resulting in another day with below normal
temps. Low level thickness values, sunny skies and N/NE flow 
support highs low/mid 40s along the Outer Banks and mid 40s/mid 
50s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM Saturday...

High pressure will be centered just to our northeast Sunday 
evening so another chilly night is expected. Lows will still be 
mostly in the 20s to near freezing inland. The biggest 
difference will be with the position of the high closer to the 
Outer Banks. These locations may see their coldest night of 
this stretch with lows here also near freezing or a tad below
with the high almost overhead. 

Not much to change beyond Sunday night. As the high mentioned 
above slides off the coast Monday into Tuesday, we will 
gradually see a return to warmer weather. Highs will be in the 
60s Monday and 70s Tuesday. We were able to refine chances for 
late day showers Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next cold front.
Still looks like a mostly dry afternoon with any slight chances
for rain (20%) being over the far west ahead of the front, and 
the coastal waters, with dry weather in between.

The most likely period for rain will occur late Tuesday night 
into early Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. All 
model guidance continues to lock in on timing so we raised 
chances for rain toward 70%. Rain quickly moves out Wednesday 
morning with drier weather by afternoon. Much better model 
agreement behind the front than yesterday. The 12Z Euro keeps 
any colder shot of air behind this front across the northeast, 
more in line with what the GFS has had for the past few runs. 
The end result would be lows mainly in the 40s (less of a frost 
concern) and temps mainly in the 60s during the day versus 50s 
for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/... 
As of 7 PM Sat...VFR conditions expected through the period 
with mainly clear skies. Light winds this evening become N 5-10 
kt at the terminals and 10-20 kt along the coast late tonight 
and Sunday.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
As of 330 PM Sat...VFR should dominate thru early Tue with high
pressure building in from the north Sunday and sliding off the 
coast Mon with mostly clear skies. Moisture will be increasing 
Tue ahead of an approaching cold front. Sub VFR conditions Tue 
night and early Wed as the cold front crosses with decent 
coverage of shra. Drier air will push in later Wed in wake of 
cold front with clearing skies and return to VFR Wednesday 
afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/... 
As of 1015 PM Sat...Latest obs continue to show variable winds 
less than 10 kt with seas 2-3 feet, although stronger winds are
observed just north of the NC/VA border and expect northerly 
winds to increase to 15-25 kt late tonight as gradients tighten
with reinforcing high pressure building in from the north. This
will allow seas to build to 4-7 feet north of Ocracoke late 
tonight and remain elevated into Sunday afternoon. Gusty 
northerly winds gradually become NE 10-15 kt late with seas 
subsiding to 3-5 feet. Continue the SCA north of Ocracoke 
beginning late tonight and continuing into Sunday afternoon. 

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
As of 330 PM Sat...

The main concern over the waters will be later Tuesday through
Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Gusty winds and
elevated seas will occur during that period with small craft
conditions likely over the coastal waters and potentially the
sounds as well. 

High pressure will in control over the waters early Sunday night
through Monday evening. North winds will gradually veer into the
south by late Monday and remain at less than 10 kts, with seas
subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Southwest winds pick up late Monday
night into Tuesday, 10 to 20. Gusts (25kt+) and seas (6 feet) 
may approach small craft criteria over the central waters by 
late Tuesday afternoon. 

Winds will peak late Tuesday afternoon through daybreak
Wednesday over the waters, with southwest winds 20 to 30. Seas
will build to 4 to 7 feet over most of the coastal waters but
may build to 5 to 10 feet over the central waters around
daybreak Wednesday. Winds veer into the northwest behind the
front later Wednesday and gradually diminish to 15 to 25 kts.
Seas subside under 6 feet by Wednesday evening. Northwest winds
diminish to 10 to 20 kts Thursday, with seas 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH/SK
MARINE...EH/SK/CQD