474 FXUS62 KMHX 050317 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1017 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control through Sunday night, then move offshore Monday. A cold front will move through Tuesday night. High pressure will build into the region behind the front and linger through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 1015 PM Sat...Update mainly to capture T/Td and winds trends. Latest sfc analysis shows strong 1044mb high pressure centered over southern Ontario/Quebec this evening, extending into the Mid- Atlantic and SE. Another cold night with below normal temps expected, with lows dropping into the mid 20s/low 30s. Light winds will increase late tonight and early Sunday morning as reinforcing high pressure builds in from the north. Will continue the SPS for widespread sub-freezing temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sat...High pressure will continue to build over the area from the north...resulting in another day with below normal temps. Low level thickness values, sunny skies and N/NE flow support highs low/mid 40s along the Outer Banks and mid 40s/mid 50s inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 PM Saturday... High pressure will be centered just to our northeast Sunday evening so another chilly night is expected. Lows will still be mostly in the 20s to near freezing inland. The biggest difference will be with the position of the high closer to the Outer Banks. These locations may see their coldest night of this stretch with lows here also near freezing or a tad below with the high almost overhead. Not much to change beyond Sunday night. As the high mentioned above slides off the coast Monday into Tuesday, we will gradually see a return to warmer weather. Highs will be in the 60s Monday and 70s Tuesday. We were able to refine chances for late day showers Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next cold front. Still looks like a mostly dry afternoon with any slight chances for rain (20%) being over the far west ahead of the front, and the coastal waters, with dry weather in between. The most likely period for rain will occur late Tuesday night into early Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. All model guidance continues to lock in on timing so we raised chances for rain toward 70%. Rain quickly moves out Wednesday morning with drier weather by afternoon. Much better model agreement behind the front than yesterday. The 12Z Euro keeps any colder shot of air behind this front across the northeast, more in line with what the GFS has had for the past few runs. The end result would be lows mainly in the 40s (less of a frost concern) and temps mainly in the 60s during the day versus 50s for highs. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 7 PM Sat...VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly clear skies. Light winds this evening become N 5-10 kt at the terminals and 10-20 kt along the coast late tonight and Sunday. Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Sat...VFR should dominate thru early Tue with high pressure building in from the north Sunday and sliding off the coast Mon with mostly clear skies. Moisture will be increasing Tue ahead of an approaching cold front. Sub VFR conditions Tue night and early Wed as the cold front crosses with decent coverage of shra. Drier air will push in later Wed in wake of cold front with clearing skies and return to VFR Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 1015 PM Sat...Latest obs continue to show variable winds less than 10 kt with seas 2-3 feet, although stronger winds are observed just north of the NC/VA border and expect northerly winds to increase to 15-25 kt late tonight as gradients tighten with reinforcing high pressure building in from the north. This will allow seas to build to 4-7 feet north of Ocracoke late tonight and remain elevated into Sunday afternoon. Gusty northerly winds gradually become NE 10-15 kt late with seas subsiding to 3-5 feet. Continue the SCA north of Ocracoke beginning late tonight and continuing into Sunday afternoon. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Sat... The main concern over the waters will be later Tuesday through Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Gusty winds and elevated seas will occur during that period with small craft conditions likely over the coastal waters and potentially the sounds as well. High pressure will in control over the waters early Sunday night through Monday evening. North winds will gradually veer into the south by late Monday and remain at less than 10 kts, with seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Southwest winds pick up late Monday night into Tuesday, 10 to 20. Gusts (25kt+) and seas (6 feet) may approach small craft criteria over the central waters by late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will peak late Tuesday afternoon through daybreak Wednesday over the waters, with southwest winds 20 to 30. Seas will build to 4 to 7 feet over most of the coastal waters but may build to 5 to 10 feet over the central waters around daybreak Wednesday. Winds veer into the northwest behind the front later Wednesday and gradually diminish to 15 to 25 kts. Seas subside under 6 feet by Wednesday evening. Northwest winds diminish to 10 to 20 kts Thursday, with seas 2 to 4 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM...SK/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...EH/SK MARINE...EH/SK/CQD