004 
FXUS62 KMLB 041456
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
956 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

.UPDATE...

...Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions through Early Next Week...

Today-Tonight...Little change as strong high pressure along the 
eastern seaboard will maintain a northeast wind flow.  A reinforcing 
northeast wind surge was delayed slightly since yesterday's model 
runs, now showing it occurring early this evening and overnight. A 
weak inverted trough associated with this surge boundary will 
actually make it less windy today, compared to yesterday, except 
maybe in Martin county. Also, a small rain chance should hold off 
until early evening in the north and during the late 
evening/overnight along the rest of the coast.  The dryness of the 
air over land (dew points in the 40s) suggests that showers 
overnight should have a difficult time reaching the interior before 
dissipating, but will wait to look at later guidance before taking 
out interior POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change. VFR with scattered marine stratocumulus. Expect 
occasional brief ceilings between 040-050 AGL at most sites 
initially along the coast (MLB-SUA) then spreading inland during the 
afternoon. Isolated showers may cross the coast aft 00Z assocd with 
a surge in NE winds. Ceilings should lower slightly but will keep 
them VFR (035 AGL) in the TAFs. 

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Little change anticipated.  The pressure gradient has become 
baggy across the north/central waters associated with an inverted 
trough accompanying a wind surge, which was seen on satellite 
imagery offshore northeast Florida.  The gradient remains tight 
across south Florida, including our far southern waters. As a 
result, northeast winds 10-15 knots will occur across the north with 
4 to 5 foot seas. Stronger winds near 20 knots will continue across 
the south with seas 5 to 7 feet near shore and 6 to 8 feet in the 
Gulf Stream. 

It is important for boaters to know that a surge of NE winds is 
forecast to overspread all the waters late in the day and early 
evening. 

Tonight...Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will occur over
all the waters with E/NE winds 20-25 knots and seas building 9-11
feet in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH values should reach to around 35 percent again this afternoon 
across the interior.  Winds look less gusty there than yesterday, so 
Red Flag Warnings are not expected.  However, breezier conditions 
are on tap for Sunday and into early next week.  Even while min RH 
values gradually rise, the gusty conditions will result in an 
increased danger for rapid spread of any new or ongoing fires across 
all of east central Florida. 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST 
     Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-
     20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet 
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

&&

$$

Forecasts...Lascody
Impact Wx...Volkmer