004 FXUS62 KMLB 041456 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 956 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 .UPDATE... ...Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions through Early Next Week... Today-Tonight...Little change as strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard will maintain a northeast wind flow. A reinforcing northeast wind surge was delayed slightly since yesterday's model runs, now showing it occurring early this evening and overnight. A weak inverted trough associated with this surge boundary will actually make it less windy today, compared to yesterday, except maybe in Martin county. Also, a small rain chance should hold off until early evening in the north and during the late evening/overnight along the rest of the coast. The dryness of the air over land (dew points in the 40s) suggests that showers overnight should have a difficult time reaching the interior before dissipating, but will wait to look at later guidance before taking out interior POPs. && .AVIATION... Little change. VFR with scattered marine stratocumulus. Expect occasional brief ceilings between 040-050 AGL at most sites initially along the coast (MLB-SUA) then spreading inland during the afternoon. Isolated showers may cross the coast aft 00Z assocd with a surge in NE winds. Ceilings should lower slightly but will keep them VFR (035 AGL) in the TAFs. && .MARINE... Today...Little change anticipated. The pressure gradient has become baggy across the north/central waters associated with an inverted trough accompanying a wind surge, which was seen on satellite imagery offshore northeast Florida. The gradient remains tight across south Florida, including our far southern waters. As a result, northeast winds 10-15 knots will occur across the north with 4 to 5 foot seas. Stronger winds near 20 knots will continue across the south with seas 5 to 7 feet near shore and 6 to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. It is important for boaters to know that a surge of NE winds is forecast to overspread all the waters late in the day and early evening. Tonight...Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will occur over all the waters with E/NE winds 20-25 knots and seas building 9-11 feet in the Gulf Stream. && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RH values should reach to around 35 percent again this afternoon across the interior. Winds look less gusty there than yesterday, so Red Flag Warnings are not expected. However, breezier conditions are on tap for Sunday and into early next week. Even while min RH values gradually rise, the gusty conditions will result in an increased danger for rapid spread of any new or ongoing fires across all of east central Florida. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0- 20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20- 60 nm. && $$ Forecasts...Lascody Impact Wx...Volkmer