466 
FXUS62 KILM 130759
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
259 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front tonight will usher in much cooler air for
today, with seasonable temperatures persisting through mid-week.
Another cold front Wednesday will bring some rain to the area 
followed by some even cooler air late in the week. A return to
above normal temperatures will occur this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1035 PM Sunday...Latest obs show cold front knocking on
our back door. A few showers that were heading our way have
dissipated. Forecast as described below still on track.

We tied a record here at ILM with a high of 78F. With the 
sunset we are now seeing a rapid cool- down. Latest guidance has
the below-mentioned cold front moving offshore at around 
midnight, with much cooler air pouring in during the early 
morning hours. Previous discussion follows:

Another warm afternoon with temperatures at or near record 
highs in some places. Cooler air is looming to the west however 
with a front now in Western North Carolina. This front will 
continue to push south and east and move across the CWA between 
3-6z. Guidance continues to show the slightest hint of a shower
or two but feel any mention of pops is not warranted. Overnight
lows will be in the middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...A split flow will be in place initially and
basically remain in place through the period. A shearing 
southern stream system will tease the area late in the period 
and there remains slight chance pops in the forecast for this 
time. Temperatures will hover near climatology although a little
below for early Tuesday lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Cold front will be offshore Thursday morning, 
and although the day will be sunny and sun angles are starting to 
increase quickly, Thursday will be a cold and blustery day. Expect 
highs only in the low 50s, with gusty NW winds through the aftn. 
Thereafter, the period quiets and warms as shortwave ridging 
develops downstream of a slow moving southern stream impulse, and 
high pressure settles off the FL Atlantic coast. These features 
together will create dry weather, with temps warming once again to 
above climo by Saturday. The aforementioned southern stream impulse 
will move across and off the SE coast during Sunday, spawning 
cyclogenesis beneath it. The CMC/ECM keep this feature suppressed 
to the south with little to no impacts locally, while the GFS brings 
the surface low up the coast and creates a rainy Sunday. With low 
amplitude flow, and the better agreement of the ECM/CMC, will favor 
the weaker/further south solution, and keep Sunday dry with silent 
POP for D7.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 
hour TAF Issuance period. CFP occurred across the inland
terminals and will occur across the coastal terminals by 07z the
latest. West winds will veer to the Northwest becoming gusty, up
to 20 kt for up to several hours after the initial CFP. The
gustiness will temporarily stop with sustained winds holding INVOF
10 KT. After daybreak, winds will become more northerly with the 
gusty character returning. This due to the combined efforts of a
tightened sfc pg, CAA and mixing to the sfc from aloft due to 
daytime heating. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Predominantly VFR. Possible MVFR conditions
in scattered showers and low clouds Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1035 PM Sunday...No change to the forecast with the latest
update. Obs show winds continue to increase this evening as 
well as seas, with 6 footers likely inpinging upon our outer 
waters. SCA continues as before. Previous discussion follows:

Winds and seas cranking up again as a cold front now in Western
North Carolina approaches and intensifies the gradient with 
high pressure to the east. The timing of the small craft 
advisory still looks good from now through early Monday 
afternoon. Highest sustained winds are pretty much in place now 
with 20-25 knots and seas will gain another foot or two with 
maximum values at 6-8 feet later tonight. Northwest winds 
develop quickly late in the period and seas will begin a slow 
decline after this. 

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Some blustery winds will continue for a few
hours early Monday on the order of 20-25 knots from the 
northwest. By afternoon wind speeds will decrease to a more 
manageable 15-20 knots. The current small craft advisory is 
valid until 1 pm tomorrow and the timing still looks good. 
Beyond this high pressure will drift overhead and leave winds 
essentially light and variable, with a southeast, return flow 
developing late. Significant seas, after some residual higher 
values early Monday will settle down into a range of 1-3 feet 
Tuesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
As of 300 AM Monday...Cold front offshore to begin the period leaves 
gusty NW winds in its wake. NW winds of 15-20 kts will kick up 3-5 
ft seas, likely remaining just below any cautionary thresholds due 
to the short fetch allowable on an offshore wind. Winds will slowly 
ease into Friday before backing to the W/SW and increasing again to 
10-15 kts as high pressure moves offshore. Wave heights fall to 
around 2 ft Friday morning before slowly increasing again thanks to 
the SW winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/RAN
MARINE...DCH/JDW