466 FXUS62 KILM 130759 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 259 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front tonight will usher in much cooler air for today, with seasonable temperatures persisting through mid-week. Another cold front Wednesday will bring some rain to the area followed by some even cooler air late in the week. A return to above normal temperatures will occur this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1035 PM Sunday...Latest obs show cold front knocking on our back door. A few showers that were heading our way have dissipated. Forecast as described below still on track. We tied a record here at ILM with a high of 78F. With the sunset we are now seeing a rapid cool- down. Latest guidance has the below-mentioned cold front moving offshore at around midnight, with much cooler air pouring in during the early morning hours. Previous discussion follows: Another warm afternoon with temperatures at or near record highs in some places. Cooler air is looming to the west however with a front now in Western North Carolina. This front will continue to push south and east and move across the CWA between 3-6z. Guidance continues to show the slightest hint of a shower or two but feel any mention of pops is not warranted. Overnight lows will be in the middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...A split flow will be in place initially and basically remain in place through the period. A shearing southern stream system will tease the area late in the period and there remains slight chance pops in the forecast for this time. Temperatures will hover near climatology although a little below for early Tuesday lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Cold front will be offshore Thursday morning, and although the day will be sunny and sun angles are starting to increase quickly, Thursday will be a cold and blustery day. Expect highs only in the low 50s, with gusty NW winds through the aftn. Thereafter, the period quiets and warms as shortwave ridging develops downstream of a slow moving southern stream impulse, and high pressure settles off the FL Atlantic coast. These features together will create dry weather, with temps warming once again to above climo by Saturday. The aforementioned southern stream impulse will move across and off the SE coast during Sunday, spawning cyclogenesis beneath it. The CMC/ECM keep this feature suppressed to the south with little to no impacts locally, while the GFS brings the surface low up the coast and creates a rainy Sunday. With low amplitude flow, and the better agreement of the ECM/CMC, will favor the weaker/further south solution, and keep Sunday dry with silent POP for D7. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hour TAF Issuance period. CFP occurred across the inland terminals and will occur across the coastal terminals by 07z the latest. West winds will veer to the Northwest becoming gusty, up to 20 kt for up to several hours after the initial CFP. The gustiness will temporarily stop with sustained winds holding INVOF 10 KT. After daybreak, winds will become more northerly with the gusty character returning. This due to the combined efforts of a tightened sfc pg, CAA and mixing to the sfc from aloft due to daytime heating. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Predominantly VFR. Possible MVFR conditions in scattered showers and low clouds Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1035 PM Sunday...No change to the forecast with the latest update. Obs show winds continue to increase this evening as well as seas, with 6 footers likely inpinging upon our outer waters. SCA continues as before. Previous discussion follows: Winds and seas cranking up again as a cold front now in Western North Carolina approaches and intensifies the gradient with high pressure to the east. The timing of the small craft advisory still looks good from now through early Monday afternoon. Highest sustained winds are pretty much in place now with 20-25 knots and seas will gain another foot or two with maximum values at 6-8 feet later tonight. Northwest winds develop quickly late in the period and seas will begin a slow decline after this. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Some blustery winds will continue for a few hours early Monday on the order of 20-25 knots from the northwest. By afternoon wind speeds will decrease to a more manageable 15-20 knots. The current small craft advisory is valid until 1 pm tomorrow and the timing still looks good. Beyond this high pressure will drift overhead and leave winds essentially light and variable, with a southeast, return flow developing late. Significant seas, after some residual higher values early Monday will settle down into a range of 1-3 feet Tuesday. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Cold front offshore to begin the period leaves gusty NW winds in its wake. NW winds of 15-20 kts will kick up 3-5 ft seas, likely remaining just below any cautionary thresholds due to the short fetch allowable on an offshore wind. Winds will slowly ease into Friday before backing to the W/SW and increasing again to 10-15 kts as high pressure moves offshore. Wave heights fall to around 2 ft Friday morning before slowly increasing again thanks to the SW winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH/RAN MARINE...DCH/JDW