811 
FXUS64 KBMX 011716
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1116 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A cold front currently stretches west to east along the Tennessee-
Alabama state line. No rainfall or even much cloud cover currently
associated with the front. With light southwesterly surface winds
south of the front, temperatures across Central Alabama this
morning are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Might actually see this
front lift briefly back to the north this morning, before coming
southward this afternoon as a large surface ridge spreads across
the northern Plains and into the Midwest. There is not much
forcing along the front and no upper level impulse to increased
wind field to provide support. Expect a few showers across the far
north this afternoon, but most locations will be dry. Highs in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

Weak low level lift develops tonight near the frontal boundary as
it slowly moves southward into the area , and will see an
increase in showers, but only isolated to scattered coverage.
Overnight lows will in the mid 40s to low 50s.

14

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

A nearly stationary front should be draped across the forecast
area on Thursday with a shallow cool airmass to the north of the
boundary. Rain chances have been increased for Thursday into
Friday for the northern half of the area and may need to be
adjusted higher in future updates if models continue to show
multiple rounds of enhanced mid-level isentropic lift. The front
should begin accelerate southward Friday afternoon as an upper
trough gives it the boot. This will allow for surface high
pressure and dry/cooler conditions Friday night into Saturday.

A quick transition to warm advection is expected on Sunday in
response to an approaching broad trough. The shortwave may induce
another round of shower activity near a weak front which will
probably lose upper-level support and dissipate somewhere near the
Gulf Coast.

Yet another system is expected to develop by Tuesday as the
progressive pattern continues. Moisture return ahead of this
system will be enhanced by the previous system which may open
the door to the possibility for strong to severe storms as a
deepening surface low moves from the Plains toward the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A slow moving cold front will drift south across the area tonight
and into the day on Thursday. Expect skies to become SCT/BKN this
afternoon with a west to southwest wind gusty at times 10-20 knots
generally across the area. Cloud heights will drop overnight with
some reduction in visibility possible toward daybreak on Thursday.
The potential for rain at any site is too low to mention at this
time. Expect BKN/OVC conditions early Thursday with improving CIGs
toward late morning as the front continues drifting south across
the area.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon and tonight,
mainly across the northwest, as a slow moving cold front becomes
stationary across the area by Thursday. Mostly light rain expected
with little to no lightning, with scattered activity possible
through Friday. Rain chances increase for the beginning of next week
as a stronger frontal passage is possible. No fire weather concerns
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  48  57  42  51 /  10  20  40  40  40 
Anniston    70  49  59  45  54 /   0  20  40  30  40 
Birmingham  70  50  58  45  52 /   0  20  40  40  40 
Tuscaloosa  73  50  58  44  54 /   0  20  40  30  30 
Calera      72  52  61  47  55 /   0  20  40  30  40 
Auburn      71  52  67  48  61 /   0  10  20  10  30 
Montgomery  75  52  70  49  65 /   0  10  20  10  20 
Troy        73  49  72  49  69 /   0   0  10  10  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$