811 FXUS64 KBMX 011716 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. A cold front currently stretches west to east along the Tennessee- Alabama state line. No rainfall or even much cloud cover currently associated with the front. With light southwesterly surface winds south of the front, temperatures across Central Alabama this morning are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Might actually see this front lift briefly back to the north this morning, before coming southward this afternoon as a large surface ridge spreads across the northern Plains and into the Midwest. There is not much forcing along the front and no upper level impulse to increased wind field to provide support. Expect a few showers across the far north this afternoon, but most locations will be dry. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Weak low level lift develops tonight near the frontal boundary as it slowly moves southward into the area , and will see an increase in showers, but only isolated to scattered coverage. Overnight lows will in the mid 40s to low 50s. 14 .LONG TERM... Thursday through Tuesday. A nearly stationary front should be draped across the forecast area on Thursday with a shallow cool airmass to the north of the boundary. Rain chances have been increased for Thursday into Friday for the northern half of the area and may need to be adjusted higher in future updates if models continue to show multiple rounds of enhanced mid-level isentropic lift. The front should begin accelerate southward Friday afternoon as an upper trough gives it the boot. This will allow for surface high pressure and dry/cooler conditions Friday night into Saturday. A quick transition to warm advection is expected on Sunday in response to an approaching broad trough. The shortwave may induce another round of shower activity near a weak front which will probably lose upper-level support and dissipate somewhere near the Gulf Coast. Yet another system is expected to develop by Tuesday as the progressive pattern continues. Moisture return ahead of this system will be enhanced by the previous system which may open the door to the possibility for strong to severe storms as a deepening surface low moves from the Plains toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. A slow moving cold front will drift south across the area tonight and into the day on Thursday. Expect skies to become SCT/BKN this afternoon with a west to southwest wind gusty at times 10-20 knots generally across the area. Cloud heights will drop overnight with some reduction in visibility possible toward daybreak on Thursday. The potential for rain at any site is too low to mention at this time. Expect BKN/OVC conditions early Thursday with improving CIGs toward late morning as the front continues drifting south across the area. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon and tonight, mainly across the northwest, as a slow moving cold front becomes stationary across the area by Thursday. Mostly light rain expected with little to no lightning, with scattered activity possible through Friday. Rain chances increase for the beginning of next week as a stronger frontal passage is possible. No fire weather concerns are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 48 57 42 51 / 10 20 40 40 40 Anniston 70 49 59 45 54 / 0 20 40 30 40 Birmingham 70 50 58 45 52 / 0 20 40 40 40 Tuscaloosa 73 50 58 44 54 / 0 20 40 30 30 Calera 72 52 61 47 55 / 0 20 40 30 40 Auburn 71 52 67 48 61 / 0 10 20 10 30 Montgomery 75 52 70 49 65 / 0 10 20 10 20 Troy 73 49 72 49 69 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$