839 
FXUS65 KTFX 280423
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
923 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017

.UPDATE...Upper level ridging persists over the West Coast
tonight with north-northwest flow prevailing over Montana. Latest
satellite imagery and model forecasts continue to show mid and 
high level clouds increasing across the region from the north with
isolated/scattered snow showers expected over the mountains near 
Glacier National Park. Tight downslope pressure gradients along 
the east slopes of the Continental Divide are fueling gusty winds
along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the adjacent plains.
Models indicate that this gradient will remain tight through the
next 24 hours so have increased wind speeds for much of north 
central Montana tonight and Saturday. Have also lowered overnight 
low temperatures, especially in the higher valleys of southwest 
Montana where temperatures have already dropped well below zero in
a few locations. PoPs and weather grids are in good shape and no
further updates are anticipated this evening. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0003Z.

VFR conditions are expected through the current TAF cycle as an 
upper level ridge dominates the weather over the western US. The 
main concern through Saturday will be gusty winds at times across 
central MT. It appears current wind speeds/gusts won't change much 
through tonight, but then we may begin to see an increase by 
Saturday afternoon. With the stronger NW winds aloft, there is some 
potential for LLWS tonight, mainly at KLWT/KHLN, but for now it 
appears there won't be enough change in speed/direction through 2000 
ft AGL to warrant including this in the TAFs. Something we will 
continue to monitor, though. Martin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 503 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017/
Tonight through Sunday...Fairly quiet weather conditions are
expected over the weekend, with the main weather highlights being
mild temperatures and increasing winds. For tonight, a weak upper
level disturbance will move southward along the divide producing a
few isolated light snow showers. Otherwise expect seasonable
temperatures overnight in the Southwest and slightly above normal
temperatures in the north because of some clouds/breeze. For Sat
through Sun...expect mostly dry conditions as a ridge of high
pressure moves over the region, along with increasing winds and a
warming trend. Afternoon highs over the north will be in the 40s 
Sat and around 50 Sunday. Generally highs in 30s to around 40 can 
be expected in the Southwest. Winds will be on the increase, 
especially by Sunday afternoon along the front range of the 
Rockies and adjacent Plains. Brusda

Sunday Night through Friday...A persistent west-northwest jet stream 
over the region much of this period will result in an active weather 
pattern. A fairly strong clipper system will be moving across the 
area Sunday evening, and this will allow for the development of 
strong winds along and near the Rocky Mountain Front. At this point, 
we are closely monitoring for the need for high wind hazards. These 
strong winds will persist through Sunday night into Monday and allow 
for overnight lows Sunday night to remain quite mild. 

As the jet stream drops south across the area later Monday into 
Tuesday, a cold front will allow for the development of light 
snow across much of the region. This boundary will then become 
nearly stationary by Tuesday and persist through much of the 
middle to later part of the week, resulting in the potential for a
prolonged period of light snow. If the models continue to come 
into better agreement as they have today, it is likely that there 
will be travel impacts across much of the region for a good 
portion of next week. Cassell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  43  31  50 /   0   0   0   0 
CTB  27  41  31  50 /   0   0   0   0 
HLN  11  34  16  36 /   0  10   0   0 
BZN   7  29  12  37 /   0   0   0   0 
WEY  -2  23   0  28 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN   7  35  18  43 /   0  10   0   0 
HVR  23  37  26  46 /  10   0   0   0 
LWT  22  39  28  48 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls