839 FXUS65 KTFX 280423 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 923 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017 .UPDATE...Upper level ridging persists over the West Coast tonight with north-northwest flow prevailing over Montana. Latest satellite imagery and model forecasts continue to show mid and high level clouds increasing across the region from the north with isolated/scattered snow showers expected over the mountains near Glacier National Park. Tight downslope pressure gradients along the east slopes of the Continental Divide are fueling gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the adjacent plains. Models indicate that this gradient will remain tight through the next 24 hours so have increased wind speeds for much of north central Montana tonight and Saturday. Have also lowered overnight low temperatures, especially in the higher valleys of southwest Montana where temperatures have already dropped well below zero in a few locations. PoPs and weather grids are in good shape and no further updates are anticipated this evening. mpj && .AVIATION... Updated 0003Z. VFR conditions are expected through the current TAF cycle as an upper level ridge dominates the weather over the western US. The main concern through Saturday will be gusty winds at times across central MT. It appears current wind speeds/gusts won't change much through tonight, but then we may begin to see an increase by Saturday afternoon. With the stronger NW winds aloft, there is some potential for LLWS tonight, mainly at KLWT/KHLN, but for now it appears there won't be enough change in speed/direction through 2000 ft AGL to warrant including this in the TAFs. Something we will continue to monitor, though. Martin && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM MST Fri Jan 27 2017/ Tonight through Sunday...Fairly quiet weather conditions are expected over the weekend, with the main weather highlights being mild temperatures and increasing winds. For tonight, a weak upper level disturbance will move southward along the divide producing a few isolated light snow showers. Otherwise expect seasonable temperatures overnight in the Southwest and slightly above normal temperatures in the north because of some clouds/breeze. For Sat through Sun...expect mostly dry conditions as a ridge of high pressure moves over the region, along with increasing winds and a warming trend. Afternoon highs over the north will be in the 40s Sat and around 50 Sunday. Generally highs in 30s to around 40 can be expected in the Southwest. Winds will be on the increase, especially by Sunday afternoon along the front range of the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Brusda Sunday Night through Friday...A persistent west-northwest jet stream over the region much of this period will result in an active weather pattern. A fairly strong clipper system will be moving across the area Sunday evening, and this will allow for the development of strong winds along and near the Rocky Mountain Front. At this point, we are closely monitoring for the need for high wind hazards. These strong winds will persist through Sunday night into Monday and allow for overnight lows Sunday night to remain quite mild. As the jet stream drops south across the area later Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will allow for the development of light snow across much of the region. This boundary will then become nearly stationary by Tuesday and persist through much of the middle to later part of the week, resulting in the potential for a prolonged period of light snow. If the models continue to come into better agreement as they have today, it is likely that there will be travel impacts across much of the region for a good portion of next week. Cassell && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 27 43 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 27 41 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 11 34 16 36 / 0 10 0 0 BZN 7 29 12 37 / 0 0 0 0 WEY -2 23 0 28 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 7 35 18 43 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 23 37 26 46 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 22 39 28 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls