693 
FXUS62 KILM 250248
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
One more abnormally warm day before a cold front sweeps through
and brings much colder temperatures for the weekend. A warming
trend will develop next week ahead of another front. Widespread
rain is expected ahead of the front during the middle of next 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Thursday...Biggest concern this period is coverage
and magnitude of dense fog. Skies will be clear to partly 
cloudy through the night. Relatively high dewpoints are in place
with virtually no wind at the surface and no evidence of 
nocturnal jetting. As the column cools, dewpoint depressions 
will be reached around and after midnight. Model soundings 
support the development of a pronounced surface inversion which 
will develop overnight and linger for a couple hours after 
sunrise. This strongly suggests moisture will be trapped at 
ground level leading to the development of at least areas of 
dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory is certainly possible for 
widespread visibility of a quarter mile or less. 

It will be another night of above normal temps with lows in the
lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...The second short-wave that is 
forecast to cross the area should do so late Friday night. The 
12 UTC GFS is slightly faster than the 12 UTC ECMWF. The 
moisture profile ahead of the front changes little with 
precipitable water values below 1 inch and concentrated below 
700 millibars. Expect about a 30% chance of showers with little 
QPF with this system. Hopefully this will change as will be 
discussed in the long range forecast. 

After the frontal passage a cold northerly flow moves in late 
Saturday. Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the middle 70s 
on Friday, dropping into the lower 60s on Saturday. Low temperatures
Friday night will be in the upper 40s, but with cold air advection
following the cold frontal passage, will see lows in the middle
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Fast mid-level flow will gradually 
transition to one becoming more amplified late in the period. This 
allows cold high pressure to move offshore early next week followed 
by a warming trend through Wednesday. Sunday still on track to be a 
cold day despite abundant sunshine, with highs likely several 
degrees below climo. A subtle warming trend begins Monday as the 
high begins to shift offshore, but more pronounced warming develops 
Tuesday as a warm front lifts northward driving warm and moist 
advection into the Carolinas. Temps Wed-Thu will rise to well above 
climo once again. However, the as temps climb, sensible weather will 
deteriorate thanks to a cold front beneath a deep mid-level trough 
moving into the Appalachians. This front becomes aligned parallel to 
the mid-level flow downwind of the trough so longitudinal 
progression slows to a crawl Tue-Thu. As this occurs, deep gulf 
moisture flows NE and pieces of vort energy rotate NE along the 
front. This suggests the first widespread rainfall across the 
Carolinas in quite some time, with the heaviest rainfall locally 
expected Wed night and Thursday as the front finally pushes 
east beneath the NE ejecting shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...Light winds will likely decouple at times, 
especially inland, in a very weak pressure gradient. Dewpoint 
depressions will approach zero late tonight and conditions will 
become favorable for fog development. Light SW flow also favors 
fog at CRE. Generally light SSW flow will persist through Friday
with surface high pressure offshore and a weak trough to the 
west. 

Extended outlook...MVFR conditions possible Friday night with
scattered showers. Otherwise VFR expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Thursday...High pressure has moved well offshore 
and southwest to west winds will be light with speed generally 
below 10 KT. Seas will run between 1 and 2 feet. 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A cold front will sweep across the 
waters late Friday night, this will usher in an increase of 
Northwest winds. As the cold air advects over the water, wind 
speeds are expected to reach 15 to 20 knots on Saturday into 
Saturday night. With offshore flow through much of the period, 
seas are expected to begin on Friday at 1 to 2 feet, but 
increase to 3 to 4 feet with a few 5 footers from 10 to 20 miles
off the coast on Saturday into Saturday night. 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure moving overhead and then 
offshore will create a weak gradient initially, but this will 
tighten through the period ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. 
Winds Sunday through Monday aftn will be less than 10 kts while 
veering from North to SW, and then steadily increase through Tuesday 
to 15-20 kts. Residual 3-4 ft seas will start Sunday, but fall to 1-
2 ft most of Sunday and Monday. As the winds increase late Monday 
and Tuesday, seas will climb to 4-6 ft late in the period, aided by 
a SE swell and SW wind wave, and an SCA will likely be needed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...CRM